The Business Cycle Model Beyond General Equilibrium

Olkhov, Victor (2018): The Business Cycle Model Beyond General Equilibrium.

Abstract

This paper presents the business cycle model without using assumptions of general equilibrium. We use agent-based models, risk assessments and economic space as ground for modelling business cycles. All economic agents are at risk but not for all agents risk assessments are performed. We propose that for each agent risk assessment can be performed and suggest treat risk ratings x of agents as their coordinate x on economic space. Agents fill economic domain bounded by most secure and most risky agents. Economic processes, exogenous or endogenous shocks induce evolution of agent’s risk coordinates. We show how risk motions of agents on the bounded economic domain induce the business cycle. We derive the system of economic equations that describe macroeconomic evolution and the business cycle on economic space. As example, we study simple model that describe relations between macro Assets A(t,x) and Revenue-on-Assets B(t,x). To show how economic equations describe the business cycle we obtain from them the system of ordinary differential equations that describes business cycle time fluctuations of macroeconomic Assets A(t) and Revenue-on-Assets B(t).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Business cycle; Agent-Based Models; Risk Assessment; Economic Space
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F44 - International Business Cycles

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