The behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle

Mashabela, Juliet and Raputsoane, Leroi (2018): The behaviour of disaggregated output over the economic cycle.

Abstract

This study examines the behaviour of disaggregated real output over the economic cycle in South Africa. Aggregate output as well as sectoral and industry level output are decomposed into their transitory and permanent components. These components of output are then examined for their comovement with those of Aggregate output. The results of the transitory components generally show a strong positive comovement of aggregate output with output of all the economic sectors and majority of the industries. The results of the potential components generally show a weak positive comovement of Aggregate output with output of majority of the economic sectors and industries. The results particularly show a weak comovement of aggregate output and output of general government services as well as community, social and personal services sectors which highlights a laissez faire approach of government to economic management. The results also show no definite distinction of industries, such as defensive, cyclical and sensitive industries, in contrast to the finance literature.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Disaggregated output, Commovement, Economic cycle
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; D - Microeconomics > D2 - Production and Organizations > D20 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles

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