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Financial cycle and conduct of monetary policy: theory and empirical evidence

CHAFIK, Omar (2018): Financial cycle and conduct of monetary policy: theory and empirical evidence.

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Abstract

The financial cycle can play a decisive role in the transmission of monetary policy decisions. The impact of these decisions is amplified when the financial cycle is positive, and it is compressed when this cycle is negative. Considering this amplifier/divider mechanism’s in a semi-structural NKM, estimated for the US economy using Bayesian techniques, confirms this conclusion and could improve the decision of raising or lowering the interest rate. The information on the financial cycle also allows a better identification of the inflationary and disinflationary pressures due to the impact of this cycle on the balance between supply and demand of the economy through its action on financing conditions.

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