Classifying de facto exchange rate regimes of financially open and closed economies: A statistical approach

Dąbrowski, Marek A. and Papież, Monika and Śmiech, Sławomir (2019): Classifying de facto exchange rate regimes of financially open and closed economies: A statistical approach.

Abstract

This paper offers a new de facto exchange rate regime classification that draws on the strengths of three popular classifications. Its two hallmarks are the careful treatment of a nexus between exchange rate regime and financial openness and the use of formal statistical tools (the trimmed k-means and k-nearest neighbour methods). It is demonstrated that our strategy minimises the impact of differences between market-determined and official exchange rates on the ‘fix’ and ‘float’ categories. Moreover, it is more suited to assess empirical relevance of the Mundellian trilemma and ‘irreconcilable duo’ hypotheses. Using comparative analysis we find that the degree of agreement between classifications is moderate: the null of no association is strongly rejected, but its strength ranges from low to moderate. Moreover, it is shown that our classification is the most strongly associated with each of the other classifications and as such can be considered (closest to) a centre of a space of alternative classifications. Finally, we demonstrate that unlike other classifications, ours lends more support to the Mundellian trilemma than to the ‘irreconcilable duo’ hypothesis. Overall, our classification cannot be considered a variant of any other de facto classification. It is a genuinely new classification.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: exchange rate regime; financial openness; macroeconomic trilemma; cluster analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C38 - Classification Methods ; Cluster Analysis ; Principal Components ; Factor Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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