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Mortality forecasting for the Algerian population with considering cohort effect

Flici, Farid (2015): Mortality forecasting for the Algerian population with considering cohort effect. Published in: Proceeding of the IAA-Life Section Colloquia No. 2015, Oslo (Norway) (June 2015)

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Abstract

Mortality forecasting became a big challenge not only for demographers but also for actuaries. Different models were proposed for this issue while insuring effciency and simplicity. These models have been based on time and age dimensions. The analysis of mortality reductions schemes by age shows some inequalities related to age. Generally, the difference is well apparent between lower and higher ages. This can't be only tied to time, but also to the year of birth. Considering the cohort effect in morality forecasting has to improve the fitting quality. In the present paper, we propose to forecast the age-specific mortality rates in Algeria with considering cohort effect by comparison a set of models.

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