Predicting CPI in Singapore: An application of the Box-Jenkins methodology

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Predicting CPI in Singapore: An application of the Box-Jenkins methodology.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on CPI in Singapore from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the S series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model for predicting CPI in Singapore. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Singapore is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Singapore.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; Singapore
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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