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Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Predicting CPI in Panama

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Predicting CPI in Panama.

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on CPI in Panama from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the P series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model for predicting CPI in Panama. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for forecasting CPI in Panama. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Panama is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next 10 years. The study encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to deal with inflation in Panama.

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