Predicting consumer price index in Saudi Arabia

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Predicting consumer price index in Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

This paper uses annual time series data on CPI in Japan from 1963 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the Y series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model for predicting CPI in Saudi Arabia. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in Saudi Arabia. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Saudi Arabia is likely to be relatively high in the next decade. The study encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to deal with inflation in Saudi Arabia.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; Saudi Arabia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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