Predicting inflation in the Kingdom of Bahrain using ARIMA models

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Predicting inflation in the Kingdom of Bahrain using ARIMA models.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in the Kingdom of Bahrain from 1966 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that Bahrain inflation series is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The results of the study apparently show that predicted inflation will be approximately 1.5% by 2020. Policy makers and the business community in the Kingdom of Bahrain are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bahrain; forecasting; inflation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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