Microfundamentos de una Regla de Política Monetaria, Regla de Poole

Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan and Valdivia Coria, Daney David (2019): Microfundamentos de una Regla de Política Monetaria, Regla de Poole.

Abstract

El marco de la política monetaria de muchos países se desarrolla bajo un esquema de metas de inflación (Inflation Targeting Framework), lo cual plantea que un banco central fija la tasa de interés. La conocida Regla de Taylor, es la regla de política monetaria aplicado en la evidencia empírica para la modelación de mecanismos de transmisión de un Banco Central. Los microfundamentos en términos Log-lineales son consistentes en línea con Kranz (2015), sin embargo países como: China, Nigeria, Bolivia, Yemen, Suriname, entre otros, se encuentran bajo un marco distinto, control de la oferta monetaria (el FMI lo define como Monetary Aggregate Target). La Regla de MacCallum propuesta en los 80´s sería la más apropiada para describir los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en este tipo de economías. Pero en la presente investigación se optó por fundamentar una regla de política monetaria distinta a las convencionales. Gracias al aporte de William Poole en 1970, nuestra Regla de Política explica que la oferta monetaria reacciona al comportamiento de cinco (5) variables: brecha del producto, brecha de la tasa de interés, tasa de interés observada, expectativas del producto y de la inflación; por lo cual denominamos a este instrumento la Regla de Poole. A través de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE) comprobamos si dicha regla es apropiada para economías bajo un esquema diferente de Inflation Targeting Framework.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: E51, E60, E61
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E60 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E61 - Policy Objectives ; Policy Designs and Consistency ; Policy Coordination

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