Modeling and forecasting inflation in The Gambia: an ARMA approach

NYONI, THABANI and MUTONGI, CHIPO (2019): Modeling and forecasting inflation in The Gambia: an ARMA approach.

Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in The Gambia from 1962 to 2016, to model and forecast inflation using ARMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that G is I(0). The study presents the ARMA (1, 0, 0) model [which is nothing but an AR (1) model]. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARMA (1, 0, 0) model is stable and indeed acceptable. The results of the study apparently show that G will be approximately 7.88% by 2020. Policy makers and the business community in The Gambia are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; inflation; The Gambia
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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