Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Modeling and forecasting inflation in The Gambia: an ARMA approach

NYONI, THABANI and MUTONGI, CHIPO (2019): Modeling and forecasting inflation in The Gambia: an ARMA approach.

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Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in The Gambia from 1962 to 2016, to model and forecast inflation using ARMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that G is I(0). The study presents the ARMA (1, 0, 0) model [which is nothing but an AR (1) model]. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARMA (1, 0, 0) model is stable and indeed acceptable. The results of the study apparently show that G will be approximately 7.88% by 2020. Policy makers and the business community in The Gambia are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

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