Short-term evolution of forward curves and volatility in illiquid power markets

Vázquez, Miguel and Sánchez-Úbeda, Eugenio F. and Berzosa, Ana and Barquín, Julián (2008): Short-term evolution of forward curves and volatility in illiquid power markets.

Abstract

We propose in this paper a model for the description of electricity spot prices, which we use to describe the dynamics of forward curves. The spot price model is based on a long-term/short-term decomposition, where the price is thought of as made up of two factors: A long-term equilibrium level and short-term movements around the equilibrium. We use a non-parametric approach to model the equilibrium level of power prices, and a mean-reverting process with GARCH volatility to describe the dynamics of the short-term component. Then, the model is used to derive the expression of the short-term dynamics of the forward curve implicit in spot prices. The rationale for the approach is that information concerning forward prices is not available in most of power markets, and the direct modeling of the forward curve is a difficult task. Moreover, power derivatives are typically written on forward contracts, and usually based on average prices of forward contracts. Then, it is difficult to obtain analytical expressions for the forward curves. The model of forward prices allows for the valuation of power derivatives, as well as the calculation of the volatilities and correlations required in risk management activities. Finally, the methodology is proven in the context of the Spanish wholesale market

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forward curves;Power Markets;GARCH volatility;nonparametric regression
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations ; Speculations; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy

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