Brexit trade impacts' and Mercosur's negotiations with Europe

J., Julio (2019): Brexit trade impacts' and Mercosur's negotiations with Europe. Published in: Journal of World Trade , Vol. Vol 53, No. Issue 3 (2019): pp. 343-372.

Abstract

We estimate that a hard Brexit (HB) would reduce UK agro-industrial-imports from the EU by around 50%. Following the dismantling of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) the UK Government has proposed to shift towards market-oriented agricultural policies and negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) with interested countries. Assuming that the UK restores the previous level of agro industrial products, the paper estimates the net export gains that Mercosur could achieve in the UK market for different agro-industrial products. In the event of a Hard Brexit, and assuming that the Mercosur-EU negotiations are not completed before, Mercosur would then face two negotiations in Europe: with the EU27 and with the UK. We argue that failing Mercosur to give priority to talks with the UK, other countries are more than likely sign trade agreements and fill its import gap thus creating additional trade diversion effects against the Mercosur. We offer back-of-the-envelope estimates indicating that under such an FTA, Mercosur could double its agro-industrial exports to the UK. These significant export gains are concentrated in a group of products that are now highly protected by the CAP.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Brexit, Mercosur, trade diversion, trade institutions, agro-industrial trade, Common Agricultural Policy, free trade agreement
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D4 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F53 - International Agreements and Observance ; International Organizations; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F55 - International Institutional Arrangements; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F61 - Microeconomic Impacts

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