Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model

Haqiqi, Iman and Bahalou, Marziyeh (2013): Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model. Published in: Journal of Money and Economy , Vol. 8, No. 3 (June 2013): pp. 117-150.

Abstract

A large economic literature discusses the implications of export sanctions for a variety of states around the world. This paper investigates the macrolevel consequences of imposing oil export barriers on an oil exporting country. We employ a large real financial computable general equilibrium for Iran. The model is calibrated based on 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for the economy of Iran including 112 commodities and 47 activities. We find that the impact of a 50% negative shock in oil export would amount to a 4.6% reduction in GDP, a 6.8% fall in private consumption, a 20.2% cut in government spending, a 20.4% decrease in import, a 9.9% contraction in capital formation, and a+ 29.2% increase in non-oil export. We also find that there is a conflict between government benefits and national benefit. Our sensitivity analysis proves the robustness of the results.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: export barriers; government spending; capital formation; computable general equilibrium; social accounting matrix
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics; F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F51 - International Conflicts ; Negotiations ; Sanctions; F - International Economics > F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization > F62 - Macroeconomic Impacts; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q33 - Resource Booms; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q37 - Issues in International Trade

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