Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model

Jackson, Emerson Abraham and Tamuke, Edmund (2019): Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model. Forthcoming in: Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields , Vol. 10, No. 2(20) (31 December 2019)

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This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months outof-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly outlined possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourist arrivals in the country.

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