Projection des taux de fécondité de la population algérienne à l’horizon 2050

FLICI, Farid (2016): Projection des taux de fécondité de la population algérienne à l’horizon 2050.

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the fertility age pattern of the Algerian population up to 2050. To this end, we use the Lee-Carter model in his fertility-adapted version. The used data is issued from the publications of the Office of National Statistics for the period from 1964 to 2014. Missing data were estimated with an S-logistic function.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Forecasting the age-specific fertility rates of the Algerian population up to 2050
• Language: French
• Keywords: Fertility; forecasting; Lee-Carter; Algeria.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth

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