Krouglov, Alexei (2020): Mathematical model of the supply shock crisis (COVID – 19).

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Abstract
Presented here is a simplified mathematical model describing a supply side crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID – 19). Model of a singleproduct economy is presented where the supply shock has a constant acceleration. If amount of the supply shock has a modest positive acceleration the product earnings are positive and increasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic growth. If amount of the supply shock has a large positive acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. If amount of the supply shock has a negative acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. Economic mechanism of the supply side crisis is conceptually close to a mechanism of economic growth caused by investment. Moreover, economic system is able to overcome a modest supplyside shock and provide economic growth there. Further, the system with the passage of time produces and delivers enough amount of product to both satisfy the demand and compensate for the supplyside shock.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Mathematical model of the supply shock crisis (COVID – 19) 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  supply side shock; economic crises; mathematical models 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0  General > C02  Mathematical Methods E  Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3  Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32  Business Fluctuations ; Cycles O  Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1  Economic Development > O11  Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development 
Item ID:  99912 
Depositing User:  Alexei Krouglov 
Date Deposited:  29 Apr 2020 07:31 
Last Modified:  29 Apr 2020 07:31 
References:  Krouglov, Alexei (2006). Mathematical Dynamics of Economic Markets. New York: Nova Science Publishers. Krouglov, Alexei (2017). Mathematical Models of Economic Growth and Crises. New York: Nova Science Publishers. Petrovski, Ivan G. (1966). Ordinary Differential Equations. Englewoods Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall. Piskunov, Nikolai S. (1965). Differential and Integral Calculus. Groningen: P. Noordhoff. 
URI:  https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/99912 