Economic Impact of COVID-19 On Bangladesh: Agenda for Immediate Action and Planning for the Future

Khan, Haider (2020): Economic Impact of COVID-19 On Bangladesh: Agenda for Immediate Action and Planning for the Future.

Abstract

This paper uses a Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh for the year 2017 to understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy. In addition it addresses counterfactual questions regarding various scenarios to assist both endangered sectors and vulnerable population by using both a SAM-based model and HIES, LFS and other satellite accounts data. Both short rn and medium run scenarios as well as pertinent financing aspects are discussed

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: COVID-19, Economic Impact, Vulnerable Groups, SAM-based Model, Public Finance, Recovery Package
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C67 - Input-Output Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H51 - Government Expenditures and Health; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O53 - Asia including Middle East

References

References:

Acemoglu,Daron, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning and Michael D. Whinston.(2020).” A Multi-risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown,”NBER Working Paper 27102 http://www.nber.org/papers/w27102

Alvarez, Fernando, David Argente, and Francesco Lippi, “A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown,” Working Paper 26981, National Bureau of Economic Research April 2020.

Atkeson, Andrew, “How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding The Difficulties With Estimation Of Its Fatality Rate,” Working Paper 26965, National Bureau of Economic Research April 2020. ,

------- “What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios,” Working Paper 26867, National Bureau of Economic Research March 2020.

Avery, Christopher, William Bossert, Adam Clark, Glenn Ellison, and Sara Fisher Ellison, “Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists,” Working Paper 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research April 2020.

Bairoliya, Neha and Ay¸se ˙Imrohoro ˘glu, “Macroeconomic Consequences of Stay-AtHome Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” April 2020. Mimeo

Barkat, A. (2020). “Coronavirus-19: Shombhabbo Onishchoyota o Koroniyo Kolpochitro,” Dhaka University, Economics and Japanese Studies Department.

Bayham, Jude, Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Quentin Gunn, and Eli P. Fenichel, “Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2015, 282 (1818), 20150814.

Berger, David W, Kyle F Herkenhoff, and Simon Mongey, “An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine,” Working Paper 26901, National Bureau of Economic Research March 2020

Blanchard, Olivier Jean and Peter A Diamond, “The aggregate matching function,” Technical Report, National Bureau of Economic Research 1989.

Kermack, William Ogilvy, A. G. McKendrick, and Gilbert Thomas Walker, “A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics,” Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character, 1927, 115(772), 700–721.

Khan, H. A. (forthcoming 2020). “Human Capabilities in Complex Global System and Financial Governance: A Theory with Application to the BRICS,” in P. Anand et.al. eds. BRICS Handbook, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Khan H. A. (2013). “Development Strategies: Lessons from the Experiences of South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam,” in Augustin K. Fosu ed. Achieving Development Success, Oxford University Press:119-132.

Khan, H.A. (2011). “Analyzing the impact on financial crisis on developing countries,” Report submitted to the UNDP, NYC.

Khan H.A. (2010). “China’s Development Strategy and Energy Security”, in Amelia Santos-Paulino and Guanghua Wan ed. The Rise of China and India: Development Strategies and Lessons, Palgrave/Macmillan, New York.

Khan H.A. (2006).“Trade Liberalization and Poverty Reduction in CGE Models: The Dual-Dual Approach” in H. Khan and J. Weiss, eds., (2006), Poverty Strategies in Asia, E. Elgar.

Khan H.A. (2004a). Innovation and Growth in East Asia: The Future of Miracles. Houndsmills and Macmillan/Palgrave, New York.

Khan H.A. (2004b). Global Markets and Financial Crisis in Asia: Towards a Theory for the Twenty First Century. Houndsmills and Macmillan/Palgrave, New York.

Khan H.A. (1999). “Sectoral Growth and Poverty Alleviation: A Multiplier Decomposition Technique Applied to South Africa”, World Development.

------ and Thorbecke E.(1989).“Macroeconomic Effects of Technology Choice: Multiplier and Structural Path Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 11 (1)

-----------------------------(1988), Macroeconomic Effects and Diffusion of Alternative Technologies Within a Social Accounting Matrix Framework: the Case of Indonesia, Gower Publication, CO. Aldershot, U.K.

Krugman, P.(2013). End this Depression Now. W.W. Norton, New York.

Manski, Charles F and Francesca Molinari, “Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem,” Working Paper 27023, National Bureau of Economic Research April 2020

Mansur, A., A. Razzaque and Khondker B. H. (2020). “Reaching out to the Poor and Needy with Direct Cash Support: Dealing with the Last-Mile Delivery Challenge,” PRI Policy Brief, Dhaka.

Pissarides, Christopher, “Unemployment and vacancies in Britain,” Economic policy, 1986, 1 (3), 499–541.

Pyatt, G. and Thorbecke, E. (1976). Planning Techniques for a Better Future. ILO, Geneva.

Pyatt, G., and Round, J.I. (1979). “Accounting and Fixed-price Multipliers in a Social Accounting Matrix Framework,” The Economic Journal 89:850-73.

Rampini, Adriano A, “Sequential Lifting of COVID-19 Interventions with Population Heterogeneity,” Working Paper 27063, National Bureau of Economic Research April 2020.

Rowthorn, Robert and Flavio Toxvaerd, “The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment,” Technical Report 2013, Cambridge-INET Working Paper 2020.

Sattar, Z. (2020). “ ‘Covid-19 Economics and Bangladesh’: Desperate Times call for out-of-the-box Policies", The Financial Express, Dhaka, Published April 13 2020.

Stock, James H, “Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus,”Working Paper 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research March 2020.