Analyse de la non-linéarité entre la dette publique extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays de la Communauté des Économique États de l’Afrique Centrale « CEEAC »

Ntita Ntita, Jean Christophe and Kazadi Ntita, Franck and Ntanga Ntita, Jean de Dieu (2020): Analyse de la non-linéarité entre la dette publique extérieure et croissance économique dans les pays de la Communauté des Économique États de l’Afrique Centrale « CEEAC ».

Abstract

This paper determines the effect of external public debt on the economic growth of the Economic Community of Central African States. To achieve this objective, we used the Hansen model (1999) over the period 1996-2017. The results of the econometric tests indicate a no linear relationship between the external public debt and the economic growth with an optimum threshold evaluated at 72.11 % of GDP. Indeed, the external public debt has a positive impact on the economic growth for any debt below this threshold. However, any debt beyond this threshold has a negative impact on the economic growth. Therefore, to sustain economic growth in the ECCAS, external public debt management should be conditionned by good governance.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Analysis of the non-linearity between external public debt and economic growth in the countries of the Community of Economic States of Central Africa "ECCAS"
• Language: French
• Keywords: Public external debt, economic growth, threshold effect, ECCAS.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa

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