Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling

Meldrum, James and Brenkert-Smith, Hannah and Champ, Patricia and Gomez, Jamie and Falk, Lilia and Barth, Christopher (2019): Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling. Published in: Fire , Vol. 2, No. 3 (12 August 2019): pp. 1-18.

Abstract

Fire science emphasizes that mitigation actions on residential property, including structural hardening and maintaining defensible space, can reduce the risk of wildfire to a home. Accordingly, a rich body of social science literature investigates the determinants of wildfire risk mitigation behaviors of residents living in fire-prone areas. Here, we investigate relationships among wildfire hazards, residents’ risk perceptions, and conditions associated with mitigation actions using a combination of simulated wildfire conditions, household survey responses, and professionally assessed parcel characteristic data. We estimate a simultaneous model of these data that accounts for potential direct feedbacks between risk perceptions and parcel-level conditions. We also compare the use of self-reported versus assessed parcel-level data for estimating these relationships. Our analysis relies on paired survey and assessment data for approximately 2000 homes in western Colorado. Our simultaneous model demonstrates dual-directional interactions between risk perceptions and conditions associated with mitigation actions, with important implications for inference from simpler approaches. In addition to improving general understanding of decision-making about risk and natural hazards, our findings can support the effectiveness of publicly supported programs intended to encourage mitigation to reduce society’s overall wildfire risk.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: wildland fire; risk assessment; parcel-level risk; scale; mitigation; simultaneous modeling; home ignition zone
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search ; Learning ; Information and Knowledge ; Communication ; Belief ; Unawareness; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

References

Cohen, J. The wildland-urban interface fire problem: A consequence of the fire exclusion paradigm. For. Hist. Today 2008, Fall, 20–26.

Cohen, J.D. Preventing disaster: Home ignitability in the wildland-urban interface. J. For. 2000, 3, 15–21.

Cohen, J.D. Structure ignition assessment model (SIAM). In Proceedings of the The Biswell Symposium: Fire Issues and Solutions in Urban Interface and Wildland Ecosystems, Walnut Creek, CA, USA, 15–17 February 1994; Weise, D.R., Martin, R.E., Eds.; Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture: Albany, CA, USA, 1995; pp. 85–92.

Cohen, J.D.; Stratton, R.D. Home Destruction Examination: Grass Valley Fire, Lake Arrowhead, California; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region (Region 5): Vellejo, CA, USA, 2008; p. 26.

Graham, R.T. Hayman Fire Case Study; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Ft. Collins, CO, USA, 2003.

Maranghides, A.; McNamara, D.; Mell, W.; Trook, J.; Toman, B. A Case Study of a Community Affected by the Witch and Guejito Fires: Report #2—Evaluating the Effects of Hazard Mitigation Actions on Structure Ignitions; National Institute of Standards and Technology: Gaithersburg, MD, USA, 2013.

Quarles, S.L.; Valachovic, Y.; Nakamura, G.M.; Nader, G.A.; de Lasaux, M.J. Home Survival in Wildfire-Prone Areas: Building Materials and Design Considerations; University of California, Agriculture and Natural Resources: Davis, CA, USA, 2010; ISBN 978-1-60107-693-9.

Gill, A.M.; Stephens, S.L. Scientific and social challenges for the management of fire-prone wildland–urban interfaces. Environ. Res. Lett. 2009, 4, 034014.

Gibbons, P.; van Bommel, L.; Gill, A.M.; Cary, G.J.; Driscoll, D.A.; Bradstock, R.A.; Knight, E.; Moritz, M.A.; Stephens, S.L.; Lindenmayer, D.B. Land Management Practices Associated with House Loss in Wildfires. PLoS ONE 2012, 7, e29212.

Kolden, C.A.; Henson, C. A Socio-Ecological Approach to Mitigating Wildfire Vulnerability in the Wildland Urban Interface: A Case Study from the 2017 Thomas Fire. Fire 2019, 2, 9.

Penman, S.H.; Price, O.F.; Penman, T.D.; Bradstock, R.A. The role of defensible space on the likelihood of house impact from wildfires in forested landscapes of south eastern Australia. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2019, 28, 4.

Scott, J.H.; Thompson, M.P.; Gilbertson-Day, J.W. Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes—A pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA. For. Ecol. Manag. 2016, 362, 29–37.

Syphard, A.D.; Brennan, T.J.; Keeley, J.E. The importance of building construction materials relative to other factors affecting structure survival during wildfire. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2017, 21, 140–147.

Syphard, A.D.; Brennan, T.J.; Keeley, J.E. The role of defensible space for residential structure protection during wildfires. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2014, 23, 1165.

Jolley, A. Does Wildfire Mitigation Work? 16 Examples and Counting! Fire Adapt. Communities Learn. Netw. 2018. Available at https://fireadaptednetwork.org/does-wildfire-mitigation-work-16-examples-and-counting/. Accessed Aug 7, 2019.

Theobald, D.M.; Romme, W.H. Expansion of the US wildland—Urban interface. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2007, 83, 340–354.

Dennison, P.E.; Brewer, S.C.; Arnold, J.D.; Moritz, M.A. Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014, 41, 2928–2933.

Westerling, A.L. Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity. Science 2006, 313, 940–943.

Hamilton, M.; Fischer, A.P.; Guikema, S.D.; Keppel-Aleks, G. Behavioral adaptation to climate change in wildfire-prone forests. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 2018, 9, e553.

McCaffrey, S.; Toman, E.; Stidham, M.; Shindler, B. Social science research related to wildfire management: An overview of recent findings and future research needs. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2013, 22, 15.

Brenkert-Smith, H.; Champ, P.A.; Flores, N. Trying not to get burned: Understanding homeowners’ wildfire risk–mitigation behaviors. Environ. Manag. 2012, 50, 1139–1151.

Fischer, A.P.; Kline, J.D.; Ager, A.A.; Charnley, S.; Olsen, K.A. Objective and perceived wildfire risk and its influence on private forest landowners’ fuel reduction activities in Oregon’s (USA) ponderosa pine ecoregion. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2014, 23, 143.

Martin, W.E.; Martin, I.M.; Kent, B. The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities. J. Environ. Manag. 2009, 91, 489–498.

McFarlane, B.L.; McGee, T.K.; Faulkner, H. Complexity of homeowner wildfire risk mitigation: An integration of hazard theories. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2011, 20, 921.

Brenkert–Smith, H.; Champ, P.A.; Flores, N. Insights into wildfire mitigation decisions among wildland–urban interface residents. Soc. Nat. Resour. 2006, 19, 759–768.

Dickinson, K.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Champ, P.; Flores, N. Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors. Soc. Nat. Resour. 2015, 28, 807–824.

McGee, T.K.; Russell, S. “It’s just a natural way of life…” An investigation of wildfire preparedness in rural Australia. Environ. Hazards 2003, 5, 1–12.

Brenkert-Smith, H. Building bridges to fight fire: The role of informal social interactions in six Colorado wildland—Urban interface communities. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2010, 19, 689.

Olsen, C.S.; Kline, J.D.; Ager, A.A.; Olsen, K.A.; Short, K.C. Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland–urban interface homeowners’ wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes. Ecol. Soc. 2017, 22, doi:10.5751/ES-09054-220121.

Champ, P.A.; Donovan, G.H.; Barth, C.M. Living in a tinderbox: Wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours. Int. J. Wildland Fire 2013, 22, 832.

Nagle, M.G. Wildfire Risk Perception and Homeowner Mitigation: Evidence from Montana. Master’s Thesis, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA, 2018.

Short, K.C.; Finney, M.A.; Scott, J.H.; Gilbertson-Day, J.W.; Grenfell, I.C. Spatial Dataset of Probabilistic Wildfire Risk Components for the Conterminous United States; U.S. Department of Agriculture: Washington, DC, USA, 2016. Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2016-0034

Paveglio, T.B.; Edgeley, C.M.; Stasiewicz, A.M. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations. J. Environ. Manag. 2018, 213, 425–439.

King, M.F.; Bruner, G.C. Social desirability bias: A neglected aspect of validity testing. Psychol. Mark. 2000, 17, 79–103.

Van de Mortel, T. Faking it: Social desirability response bias in self-report research. Aust. J. Adv. Nurs. 2008, 25, 40–48.

Meldrum, J.R.; Champ, P.A.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Warziniack, T.; Barth, C.M.; Falk, L.C. Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (wui) residents and wildfire professionals: Wui residents and wildfire professionals. Risk Anal. 2015, 35, 1746–1761.

Economic Profile System (EPS). Headwaters Economics. Available at https://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/economic-profile-system/about/. Accessed Aug 7, 2019.

Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network. Promoting Fire Adapted Communities Through Property Assessments: Data & Tools, 2015. Available at https://fireadaptednetwork.org/resource/promoting-fire-adapted-communities-through-property-assessments-data-tools/. Accessed Aug 7, 2019.

Brenkert-Smith, H.; Meldrum, J.R.; Wilson, P.; Champ, P.A.; Barth, C.M.; Boag, A. Living with Wildfire in Montezuma County, Colorado: 2015 Data Report; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort Collins, CO, USA, 2019; p. 36.

Brenkert-Smith, H.; Meldrum, J.R.; Wilson, P.; Champ, P.A.; Barth, C.M.; Boag, A. Living with Wildfire in La Plata County, Colorado: 2015 Data Report; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort Collins, CO, USA, 2019; p. 36.

Meldrum, J.R.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Wilson, P.; Champ, P.A.; Barth, C.M.; Boag, A. Living with Wildfire in Archuleta County, Colorado: 2015 Data Report; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Fort Collins, CO, USA, 2019; p. 36.

Meldrum, J.R.; Colter Falk, L.; Gomez, J.; Barth, C.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Warziniack, T.; Champ, P.A. Living with Wildfire in Telluride Fire Protection District, Colorado; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Ft. Collins, CO, USA, 2017; p. 30.

Meldrum, J.R.; Barth, C.; Colter Falk, L.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Warziniack, T.; Champ, P.A. Living with Wildfire in Delta County, Colorado: Cross-Community Comparisons; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Ft. Collins, CO, USA, 2015; p. 33.

Meldrum, J.R.; Barth, C.M.; Falk, L.C.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Warziniack, T.; Champ, P. Living with Wildfire in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: Ft. Collins, CO, USA, 2013; p. 34.

Finney, M.A.; McHugh, C.W.; Grenfell, I.C.; Riley, K.L.; Short, K.C. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 2011, 25, 973–1000.

Zellner, A.; Theil, H. Three-Stage Least Squares: Simultaneous Estimation of Simultaneous Equations. Econometrica 1962, 30, 54.

Warziniack, T.; Champ, P.; Meldrum, J.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Barth, C.M.; Falk, L.C. Responding to Risky Neighbors: Testing for Spatial Spillover Effects for Defensible Space in a Fire-Prone WUI Community. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2019, 73, 1023–1047.

Meldrum, J.R.; Brenkert-Smith, H.; Champ, P.A.; Falk, L.; Wilson, P.; Barth, C.M. Wildland–urban interface residents’ relationships with wildfire: Variation within and across communities. Soc. Nat. Resour. 2018, 31, 1–17.

Drukker, D.M.; Prucha, I.R.; Raciborski, R. A command for estimating spatial-autoregressive models with spatial-autoregressive disturbances and additional endogenous variables. Stata J. 2013, 13, 287–301.

Paveglio, T.B.; Jakes, P.J.; Carroll, M.S.; Williams, D.R. Understanding Social Complexity Within the Wildland–Urban Interface: A New Species of Human Habitation? Environ. Manag. 2009, 43, 1085–1095.

Gordon, J.S.; Luloff, A.; Stedman, R.C. A Multisite Qualitative Comparison of Community Wildfire Risk Perceptions. J. For. 2012, 110, 74–78.

Moritz, M.A.; Batllori, E.; Bradstock, R.A.; Gill, A.M.; Handmer, J.; Hessburg, P.F.; Leonard, J.; McCaffrey, S.; Odion, D.C.; Schoennagel, T. Learning to coexist with wildfire. Nature 2014, 515, 58.

Stidham, M.; McCaffrey, S.; Toman, E.; Shindler, B. Policy tools to encourage community-level defensible space in the United States: A tale of six communities. J. Rural Stud. 2014, 35, 59–69.

McLennan, J.; Paton, D.; Wright, L. At-risk householders’ responses to potential and actual bushfire threat: An analysis of findings from seven Australian post-bushfire interview studies 2009–2014. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2015, 12, 319–327.

Tinsley, C.H.; Dillon, R.L.; Cronin, M.A. How Near-Miss Events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making. Manag. Sci. 2012, 58, 1596–1613.