Tourism and insecurity in the world

Asongu, Simplice and Uduji, Joseph and Okolo-Obasi, Elda (2019): Tourism and insecurity in the world. Published in: International Review of Economics , Vol. 66, No. 4 (December 2019): pp. 453-472.

Abstract

The study assesses the role of forces of law and order in modulating the insecurity-tourism nexus in 163 countries for the period 2010 to 2015. Policy syndromes or insecurity dynamics include: violent crime, access to weapons, political instability and perception of criminality while the policy variables of forces of law and order are captured with “security officers & police” and “armed service personnel”. The empirical evidence is based on Negative Binomial regressions. The findings show that the policy variables can be effectively used to crowd-out the negative incidence of policy syndromes on tourist arrivals. The results are contingent on net effects (from conditional and unconditional effects), insecurity dynamics and thresholds. A threshold is an inflexion point at which the unfavorable unconditional effect from a policy syndrome of insecurity on tourist arrivals is completely neutralized by policy variables of forces of law and order. Policy implications are discussed.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Insecurity; Peace; Tourism
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances ; Revolutions; Z - Other Special Topics > Z0 - General

References

Agoba, A. M., Abor, J., Osei, K. A., & Sa-Aadu, J. (2019). “Do independent Central Banks Exhibit Varied Bahaviour in Election and Non-Election Years: The Case of Fiscal Policy in Africa”. Journal of African Business. DOI: 10.1080/15228916.2019.1584263.

Alvarez, M. D., & Campo, S., (2014). “The Influence of Political Conflicts on Country Image and Intention to visit: A Study of Israel's Image.” Tourism Management, 40(February), pp. 70-78.

Ashraf, Q., & Galor, O., (2013). “The Out of Africa Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development”. American Economic Review, 103(1), pp. 1-46.

Asongu, S. A., &Amankwah-Amoah, J. (2018). “Mitigating capital flight through military expenditure: Insight from 37 African countries”. Research in International Business and Finance, 45(October), pp. 38-53.

Asongu, S. A., & Kodila-Tedika, O., (2017). “Trade, aid and terror”, International Journal of Development Issues, 16(1), pp. 2-24.

Asongu, S. A., Efobi, U. R., & Beecroft, I., (2018). “Aid in Modulating the Impact of Terrorism on FDI: No Positive Thresholds, No Policy”, Forum for Social Economics. DOI: 10.1080/07360932.2018.1434676.

Asongu, S. A., Nnanna, J., Biekpe, N., & Acha-Anyi, P., (2019a). “Contemporary Drivers of Global Tourism: Evidence from Terrorism and Peace Factors”, Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 36(3), pp. 345-357.

Asongu, S. A., & Nwachukwu, J. C., & Pyke, C., (2019b). “The Right to Life: Global Evidence on the Role of Security Officers and the Police in Modulating the Effect of Insecurity on Homicide”, Social Indicators Research. DOI: 10.1007/s11205-018-1992-2

Batuo, M. E., (2015). “The role of telecommunications infrastructure in the regional economic growth of Africa”, Journal of Development Areas, 49(1), pp. 313-330.

Bhattarai, K., Conway, D. & Shrestha, N. (2005). “Tourism, Terrorism and Turmoil in Nepal.” Annals of Tourism Research, 32(3), pp. 669-688.

Blanco, R., & Grier, B., (2009). “Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America”, The Journal of Development Studies, 45(1), pp. 76-95.

Brambor, T., Clark, W. M., & Golder, M., (2006). “Understanding Interaction Models:Improving Empirical Analyses”, Political Analysis, 14(1), pp. 63-82.

Buckley, P. J. & Klemm, M. (1993). “The Decline of Tourism in Northern Ireland.” Tourism Management, 14(3), pp. 184-194.

Causevic, S. & Lynch, P. (2013). “Political (in)Stability and its Influence on Tourism Development.” Tourism Management, 34 (February), pp.145-157.

Choi, S-W., (2015). “Economic growth and terrorism: domestic, international, and suicide”, Oxford Economic Papers, 67(1), pp. 157–181.

Choi, S-W., & Luo, S., (2013). “Economic Sanctions, Poverty, and International Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis,” International Interactions, 39(2), pp.217-245.

Coshall, J. T. (2003). “The Threat of Terrorism as an Intervention on International Travel Flows.” Journal of Travel Research, 42(1), pp. 4-12.

Cummins, J. (2000). Language, power and pedagogy: Bilingual children in the crossfire. Clevedon, England: Multilingual Matters.

Drakos, K. & Kutan, A. M. (2003). “Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), pp. 621-641.

Enders, W. & Sandler, T. (1991). “Causality between Transnational Terrorism and Tourism: The Case Of Spain.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1), pp. 49-58.

Farmaki, A., Altinay, L., Botterill, D. & Hilke, S. (2015). “Politics and Sustainable Tourism: The Case of Cyprus.” Tourism Management, 47 (April), pp.178-190.

Fletcher, J. & Morakabati, Y. (2008). “Tourism Activity, Terrorism and Political Instability within the Commonwealth: The Cases of Fiji and Kenya.” International Journal of Tourism Research, 10(6), pp. 537-556.

Fosu, A., (2013). “Growth of African Economies: Productivity, Policy Syndromes and the Importance of Institutions”, Journal of African Economies, 22(4), pp. 523-551.

Freytag, A., Kruger, J. J., Meierrieks, D., & Schneider, F., (2011). “The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism”, The European Journal of Political Economy, 27(Supplement 1), pp. S5-S16.

Gartner, W. C. & Shen, J. (1992). “The Impact of Tiananmen Square on China's Tourism Image.” Journal of Travel Research, 30(4), pp. 47-52.

Gibson, D. C., (2006). “The Relationship Between Serial Murder and the American Tourism Industry”, Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 20(1), pp. 45-60.

Goldman, O. S. & Neubauer-Shani, M. (2017). “Does International Tourism Affect Transnational Terrorism?” Journal of Travel Research, 56(4), pp. 451-467.

GPI (2016). Global Peace Index 2016. Institute for Economics & Peace. http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2017/02/GPI-2016-Report_2.pdf (Accessed: 23/07/2016).

Hoffman, B. (2006). “Inside Terrorism,” New York, Columbia University Press.

Honey, M. (1999). “Ecotourism and Sustainable Development: Who Owns Paradise?,” Washington DC, Island Press.

Kapuściński, G. & Richards, B., (2016). “News Framing Effects on Destination Risk Perception.” Tourism Management, 57 (December), pp.234-244.

Kingsbury, P. T. & Brunn, S. D., (2004). “Freud, Tourism, and Terror: Traversing the Fantasies of Post-September 11 Travel Magazines.” Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 15, (2-3), pp. 39-61.

Lepp, A. & Gibson, H. (2003). “Tourist Roles, Perceived Risk and International Tourism.” Annals of Tourism Research, 30(3), pp. 606-624.

Lepp, A., Gibson, H. & Lane, C. (2011). “Image and Perceived Risk: A Study of Uganda and its Official Tourism Website.” Tourism Management, 32(3), pp. 675-684.

Liu, B., Schroeder, A., Pennington-Gray, L. & Farajat, S. A. (2016). “Source Market Perceptions: How Risky is Jordan to Travel to?” Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 5(4), pp. 294-304.

Liu, A. & Pratt, S. (2017). “Tourism's Vulnerability and Resilience to Terrorism.” Tourism Management, 60(June), pp. 404-417.

Llorca‐Vivero, R. (2008). “Terrorism and International Tourism: New Evidence.” Defence and Peace Economics, 19(2), pp. 169-188.

Mansfeld, Y. & Pizam, A. (2006). “Tourism, Terrorism, and Civil Unrest Issues.” in Y. Mansfeld & A. Pizam (Eds.) Tourism, Security and Safety. Boston, Butterworth-Heinemann: pp. 29-31.

Mehmood, S., Ahmad, Z. & Khan, A. A., (2016). “Dynamic Relationships between Tourist Arrivals, Immigrants, and Crimes in the United States.” Tourism Management, 54(June), No.383-392.

Mlachila, M., Tapsoba, R., & Tapsoba, S. J. A., (2017). “A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal”, Social Indicators Research, 134(2), pp 675–710.

NCSS (2017). “Negative Binomial Regression”, NCSS Statistical Software, https://ncss-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/themes/ncss/pdf/Procedures/NCSS/Negative_Binomial_Regression.pdf (Accessed: 16/05/2017).

Neumayer, E. & Plümper, T. (2016). “Spatial Spill-overs from Terrorism on Tourism: Western Victims in Islamic Destination Countries.” Public Choice, 169,(3-4), pp. 195-206.

Pizam, A. (1999). “A Comprehensive Approach to Classifying Acts of Crime And Violence at Tourism Destinations.” Journal of Travel Research, 38(1), pp. 5-12.

Pizam, A. & Fleischer, A. (2002). “Severity versus Frequency of Acts of Terrorism: Which Has a Larger Impact on Tourism Demand?” Journal of Travel Research, 40(3), pp. 337-339.

Pizam, A. & Mansfeld, Y. (2006). “Toward a Theory of Tourism Security.” in Y. Mansfeld & A. Pizam (Eds.) Tourism, Security & Safety: From Theory to Practice. Boston, Butterworth-Heinemann: pp. 1-27.

Raza, S. A. & Jawaid, S. T. (2013). “Terrorism and Tourism: A Conjunction and Ramification In Pakistan.” Economic Modelling, 33 (June), pp.65-70.

Rittichainuwat, B. & Rattanaphinanchai, S. (2015). “Applying a Mixed Method of Quantitative and Qualitative Design in Explaining the Travel Motivation of Film Tourists in Visiting a Film-Shooting Destination.” Tourism Management, 46 (February), pp.136-147.

Roller, L-H., & Waverman, L. (2001). “Telecommunications infrastructure and economic development: a simultaneous approach”, American Economic Review, 91(4), pp. 909-923.

Ryan, C. (1993). “Crime, Violence, Terrorism and Tourism: An Accidental or Intrinsic Relationship?” Tourism Management, 14(3), pp. 173-183.

Saha, S. & Yap, G., (2014). “The Moderation Effects of Political Instability and Terrorism on Tourism Development.” Journal of Travel Research, 53(4), pp. 509-521.

Seddighi, H. R. & Theocharous, A. L. (2002). “A Model of Tourism Destination Choice: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.” Tourism Management, 23(5), pp. 475-487.

Seabra, C., Dolnicar, S., Abrantes, J. L. & Kastenholz, E. (2013). “Heterogeneity in Risk and Safety Perceptions of International Tourists.” Tourism Management, 36(June), pp.502-510.

Seltzer, M. (1998). Serial killers: Death & life in America’s wound culture. NY: Routledge.

Sharpley, R. (2003). “Tourism, Modernisation and Development on the Island of Cyprus: Challenges and Policy Responses.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11(2-3), pp. 246-265.

Shin, Y.-S. (2005). “Safety, Security and Peace Tourism: The Case of the DMZ Area.” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 10(4), pp. 411-426.

Sönmez, S. F. (1998). “Tourism, Terrorism, and Political Instability.” Annals of Tourism Research, 25(2), pp. 416-456.

Sönmez, S. F., Apostolopoulos, Y. & Tarlow, P. (1999). “Tourism in Crisis: Managing The Effects of Terrorism.” Journal of Travel Research, 38(1), pp. 13-18.

Sönmez, S. F. & Graefe, A. R. (1998). “Influence of Terrorism Risk on Foreign Tourism Decisions.” Annals of Tourism Research, 25(1), pp. 112-144.

Sönmez, S. F., Apostolopoulos, Y. & Tarlow, P. (1999). “Tourism in Crisis: Managing The Effects of Terrorism.” Journal of Travel Research, 38(1), pp. 13-18.

Taylor, P. A., (2006). “Getting Them to Forgive and Forget: Cognitive Based Marketing Responses to Terrorist Acts.” International Journal of Tourism Research, 8(3), pp. 171-183.

Tchamyou, V. S., (2019a). “Education, Lifelong learning, Inequality and Financial access: Evidence from African countries”.Contemporary Social Science. DOI: 10.1080/21582041.2018.1433314.

Tchamyou, V. S., (2019b).“The Role of Information Sharing in Modulating the Effect of Financial Access on Inequality”.Journal of African Business. DOI: 10.1080/15228916.2019.1584262.

Tchamyou, V. S., Erreygers, G., & Cassimon, D., (2019). “Inequality, ICT and Financial Access in Africa”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 139(February), pp. 169-184.

Tarlow, P. E. (2006). “Terrorism and Tourism.” in J. Wilks, D. Pendergast & P. Leggat (Eds.) Tourism in Turbulent Times Towards Safe Experiences for Visitors. Oxford, Elsevier: pp. 80–92.

UNODC(2013). “Global Study on Homicide : Trends, Context and Data”, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/GSH2013/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf (Accessed: 15/02/2018).

Yaya, M. E. (2009). “Terrorism and Tourism: The Case of Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, 20(6), pp. 477-497.