Shifting Pattern of Extraordinary Economic and Social Events in Relation to the Solar Cycle

Gorbanev, Mikhail (2020): Shifting Pattern of Extraordinary Economic and Social Events in Relation to the Solar Cycle.

Abstract

Most notable claims linking events on Earth with solar cycle phases relate to solar maximums. Cyclical maximums of solar activity could be associated with economic recessions (W.S.Jevons) or revolutions (A.L.Chizhevsky). However, both the diminishing magnitude of solar cycles and the recent crisis events warrant closer attention to solar minimums. The ongoing global economic and financial crisis—caused by the “great lockdown” response to the new COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic—coincided with cyclical minimum of solar activity, as did the previous Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. And before that, Asian crisis of 1997-98 began shortly after solar minimum. These events point to the new emerging pattern of global economic and financial crises coinciding with cyclical minimums of solar activity.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: revolution, recession, business cycle, sunspot, solar cycle
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F44 - International Business Cycles; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

References

Belkin, Vladimir, 2018: “Cycles of Oil (1970–2017), Metals (1980–2017) Price and the Eleven–Year Solar Cycle: Statistics of Strong Relations,” — Chelyabinsk Humanist, № 1 (42) / January 2018, pages 83-89. Available at SSRN.

Chizhevsky, Alexander, 1924: "Physical Factors of the Historical Process," — Kaluga, 1924. (In Russian: А.Чижевский. Физические факторы исторического процесса. — Калуга, 1-я Гостиполитография, 1924).

Chizhevsky, Alexander, 1938: “Les Epidemies et les perturbations electro-magnetiques du milieu exterieur,” — Paris, Hippocrate, 1938.

Chizhevsky, Alexander, 1976 : “The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms,” — Moscow, “Thought”, 1976 (In Russian: А.Л.Чижевский. Земное эхо солнечных бурь. — Москва, Издательство «Мысль», 1976.)

Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2012: “Sunspots, unemployment, and recessions, or Can the solar activity cycle shape the business cycle?” — MPRA Paper, No. 40271, July 2012.

Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2015: “Can solar activity influence the occurrence of economic recessions?” — MPRA Paper, No. 65502, July 2015.

Jevons, William Stanley, 1875: “Influence of the Sun-Spot Period on the Price of Corn,” — A paper read at the meeting of the British Association, Bristol, 1875.

Jevons, William Stanley, 1878: “Commercial crises and sun-spots,” — “Nature,” Volume xix, November 14, 1878, pp. 33-37.

Jevons, William Stanley, 1879: “Sun-Spots and Commercial Crises,” — “Nature,” Volume xix, April 24, 1879, pp. 588-590.

Jevons, William Stanley, 1882: “The Solar-Commercial Cycle,” — “Nature,” Volume xxvi, July 6, 1882, pp. 226-228.

Kane, R. P., 2002: “Evolutions of various solar indices around sunspot maximum and sunspot minimum years,”—Annales Geophysicae, 2002, 20: 741–755.