Tree Networks to assess Financial Contagion

Agosto, Arianna and Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix and Giudici, Paolo (2020): Tree Networks to assess Financial Contagion. Published in: Economic Modelling , Vol. 85, No. February 2020 (February 2020): pp. 349-366.

Abstract

We propose a two-layered tree network model that decomposes financial contagion into a global component, composed of inter-country contagion effects, and a local component, made up of inter-institutional contagion channels. The model is effectively applied to a database containing time series of daily CDS spreads of major European financial institutions (banks and insurance companies), and reveals the importance of monitoring both channels to assess financial contagion. Our empirical application reveals evidence of a high inter-country and inter-institutional vulnerability at the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and during the sovereign crisis in 2011. The results identify France as central to the inter-country contagion in the Euro area during the financial crisis, while Italy dominates during the sovereign crisis. The application of the model to detect contagion between sectors of the European economy reveals similar findings, and identifies the manufacturing sector as the most central, while, at the company level, financial institutions dominate during the 2008 crisis.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Financial crisis; Graphical Lasso; Inter-country contagion; Inter-sector contagion; Inter-institutional contagion; Sovereign crisis; Sparse covariance selection
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C58 - Financial Econometrics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G32 - Financing Policy ; Financial Risk and Risk Management ; Capital and Ownership Structure ; Value of Firms ; Goodwill

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