Model trimestrial de Prognoză a PIB-ului Republicii Moldova

TOACĂ, Zinovia and Vîntu, Denis (2019): Model trimestrial de Prognoză a PIB-ului Republicii Moldova. Published in: International Conference on Theoretical and Applied Economic Practices „Economic Growth in Conditions of Globalization: welfare and social inclusion” , Vol. I, No. The 14th Edition (November 2019): pp. 68-77.

Abstract

The purpose of the present paper is to describe a model of quarterly GDP forecast, categories of uses, in accordance with the development priorities of the Republic of Moldova in the medium term. The achievement of the main purpose requires to draw up the tasks, among which: - Conceptual approach of time series, with reference to the use of ARIMA technique for estimating the time series; - Economic analysis of the categories of uses, subcomponents of GDP; - Studying time series, using method of indices, where the following indicators were used as: growth rate, structure, degree of influence and influence; - Forecast of categories of uses, for the same reference period 2019-2020 Actuality of the research - Use of the ARIMA technique; - Using econometric package Eviews for estimating and developing the macroeconometric model. Scientific and methodological approaches described in this paper will serve as scientific support for the Ministry of Economy in the process of developing their own economic scenarios and forecasting options. Research methods: identifying trends in economic development; diagnostic analysis; economic forecasts scientifically substantiated, ARIMA methods, regression analysis of time series.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Quarterly GDP Forecast Model of the Republic of Moldova
• Language: Romanian
• Keywords: Forecast, ARIMA, general domestic product, Student test, Jarque-Bera, Fischer.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E27 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

References

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