Jain, Neha and Goli, Srinivas (2021): Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_109562.pdf Download (598kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper projects potential demographic dividend for India for the period from 2001 to 2061 by using simulation modelling software, Spectrum 5.753 which integrates demographic and socio-economic changes. Two key findings, after checking their robustness, from the simulation modelling are: First, the effective demographic windows of opportunity for India is available for the period between 2011 and 2041, giving India roughly 30 years of demographic bonus. It is the period where the maximum of the first demographic dividend can be reaped before the ageing burden starts. Second, favourable demographic changes alone provide a demographic dividend of over 165,000 rupees (almost an additional 43 percentage) in terms of GDP per capita by 2061 when integrated with supporting socio-economic policy environment in terms of investment in human capital, family planning, decent employment opportunities, the rapid pace of urbanization, and agricultural growth.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Demographic Dividend, Working-Age Population, Health, Education, Employment |
Subjects: | J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J10 - General J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts |
Item ID: | 109562 |
Depositing User: | Mrs NEHA JAIN |
Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2021 12:39 |
Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2021 12:39 |
References: | Aiyar, S. & Mody, A. (2011). The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from Indian States. IMF Working Paper 11/38. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1138.pdf. Ashraf, Q. H., David N. W., & Joshua, W. (2013). The effect of fertility reduction on economic growth. Population and Development Review, 39(1), 97–130. Bloom, D. E. & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-56. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D. & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica, CA: Rand. Bloom, D. E. & Finlay, J. E. (2008). Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Program on the Global Demography of Aging Working Paper 41, PGDA Retrieved from: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working.htm Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Hu, L., Liu, Y., Mahal, A., & Yip, W. (2010). The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India. J Comp Econ, 38(1), 17–33. doi:10.1016/j.jce.2009.11.002. Bloom, D. E. (2011). Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth. PGDA Working Paper No.65. Retrieved from http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/program-on-the-global-demography-of- aging/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_65.pdf. Bloom, D. E., Finlay, J., Humair, S., Mason, A., Olaniyan, O., & Soyibo, A. (2015). Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective. Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University, Working Paper No. 127. Retrieved from: https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp- content/uploads/sites/1288/2012/11/PGDA_WP_127_Bloom-et-al.pdf Bloomberg Economics. (2019). India insight: $10 trillion GDP by 2030? Not quite, but almost, Bloomberg Economics. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/india-insight-10-trillion-gdp-by-2030-not- quite- but-almost/ Census. (2001). Office of Registrar General, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India. Chandrasekhar, C. P., Ghosh, J., & Roychwdhury, A. (2006). The Demographic Dividend and Young India’s Economic Future. Economic and Political Weekly, 41(49), 5055-5064. Coale, A. J. & Hoover, E. (1958). Population growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries – A Case Study of India’s Prospects. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Desai, S. (2010). The Other Half of the Demographic Dividend. Economic & Political Weekly, 14(40), 12–14. Drummond, P., Thakoor, V., & Yu, S. (2014). Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend. IMF Working papers 14/143. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp14143.pdf Enke, S. (1971). Economic consequences of rapid population growth. The Economic Journal, 81(324), 800–811. Ghosh, S. (2016). Estimating the demographic dividend: Evidence from Indian states. Journal of Population Ageing, 9, 249–262, DOI 10.1007/s12062-015-9136-9 Goli, S. & Pandey, A. (2010). Is India ‘getting older before getting rich’? Beyond demographic assessment. Research Gate, Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234040176 Goli, S., James, K.S., Srinivasan, V., Mishra, R., Rana, M.J., & Reddy, U. S. (2021). Journal of Demographic Economics, 1–33, doi:10.1017/dem.2021.3 James, K. S. (2008). Glorifying Malthus: Current Debate on ‘Demographic Dividend’ in India. Economic & Political Weekly, 43(25), 63-69. __________ (2011). India's Demographic Change: Opportunities and Challenge. Science, 333, 576, DOI: 10.1126/science.1207969 James, K. S. & Goli, S. (2016). Demographic Changes in India: Is the Country Prepared for the Challenge. Brown Journal of World Affairs, 23(1), 169–187. Joe, W., Kumar, A., & Rajpal, S. (2018). Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India. Asian Population Studies, DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2018.1446379 Karra, M., David C., & Joshua W. (2017). The effect of fertility decline on economic growth in Africa: A macrosimulation model. Population and Development Review, 43, 237–263. Kelley, A. C. (1988). Economic consequences of population change in the third world. Journal of Economic Literature, 26(4), 1685–1728. Kelly, A. C. & Schmidt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of Recent Economic-Demographic Modeling: A Synthesis. Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 275-300. Kumar, U. (2013). India’s Demographic Transition: Boon or Bane? Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 1(1), 186–203. Ladusingh, L. & Narayana, M. R. (2011). Demographic Dividends for India: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts. ADB Economics Working Paper Series 292. Lutz, W., Cuaresma, J. C., Kebede, E., Prskawetz A., Sanderson, W. C., & Striessniga, E. (2019). Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend. PNAS, 116/26. Retrieved from: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/26/12798.full.pdf Mason, A. (2005). Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Countries. United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structure, Mexico City, August 31-September 2. Mason, A., Lee, R., & Lee, S. (2010). The demographic transition and economic growth in the Pacific Rim. In Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose (eds.), The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia. New York: University of Chicago Press, pp. 19–55. Ministry of Skill Development & Entrepreneurship, Government of India. (2015). National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship Report. Retrieved from: Http://Pibphoto.Nic.In/Documents/Rlink/2015/Jul/P201571503.Pdf Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. (2019). Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Report (2017–2018). Retrieved from: http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Annual%20Report%2C%20PLF S%202017-18_31052019.pdf?download=1 Ministry of Finance, Government of India. (2019). Economic Survey 2018–19. Retrieved from: https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/ Mitra, S. & Nagarajan, R. (2005). Making Use of the Window of Demographic Opportunity: an Economic Perspective. Economic and Political Weekly, 40(50), 5327–32. Navaneetham, K. & Dharmalingam, A. (2012). A Review of Age Structural Transition and Demographic Dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges. Journal of Population Ageing, 5, 281–298, DOI 10.1007/s12062-012-9071-y National Council for Population and Development and Health Policy Project. (2014). Demographic Dividend Opportunities for Kenya, Results from the DEMDIV Model. Retrieved from: https://www.healthpolicyproject.com/index.cfm?ID=publications&get=pubID&pubID=384 National Planning Authority. (2014). Harnessing the Demographic Dividend, Accelerating Socioeconomic Transformation in Uganda. Retrieved from: https://www.afidep.org/publication/harnessing-the-demographic-dividend-accelerating- socioeconomic-transformation-in-uganda/ National Commission on Population, & Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. (2019). Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011 – 2036. Retrieved from: https://nhm.gov.in/New_Updates_2018/Report_Population_Projection_2019.pdf NIEPA. (2017). Unified District Information System for Education, National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration, New Delhi. Office of Registrar General of India and Census Commissioner, Census of India. (2011). New Delhi: Government of India. Romero, M.S. (2013). The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates. Journal of Population Economics, 26(4), 1347-1377. Retrieved from: https://www.jstor.org/stable/43738951 Spectrum Manual. (2019). Spectrum System of Policy Models. Retrieved from: https://avenirhealth.org/Download/Spectrum/Manuals/SpectrumManualE.pdf Stover, J., Heaton, L. & Ross, J. (2006). FamPlan: A Computer Program for Projecting Family Planning Requirements. Washington, DC: Futures Group International. Thakur, V. (2012). The Demographic Dividend in India: Gift or curse? A State level analysis on differing age structure and its implications for India’s economic growth prospects. International development, London School of Economics and Political Science, Working Paper- No.12- 128. United Nations. (2019). World Population Prospects, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. United Nations World Urbanization Prospects. (2018). Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York. Retrieved from: https://population.un.org/wup/Publications/Files/WUP2018-Report.pdf |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/109562 |