Tail Risks and Stock Return Predictability: Evidence From Asia-Pacific

Ogbonna, Ahamuefula and Olubusoye, Olusanya E (2021): Tail Risks and Stock Return Predictability: Evidence From Asia-Pacific. Published in: Asian Economic Letters , Vol. 2, No. 3 (9 July 2021)

Abstract

Hinging on the recently established relevance of tail thickness information, we examine the predictability of fifteen major stocks in the Asia-Pacific region using conditional autoregressive value at risk (CAViaR) model estimates of tail risks. We used a Westerlund and Narayan–type distributed lag model to examine the nexus between returns and tail risk under controlled global and US stocks spillover effects. Country-specific tail risks induce a near-term rise (completely disappears) in returns on “bad” (“good”) days. Our results are robust.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk; Predictability; Returns; Tail Thickness
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C10 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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