The effect of climate change and agricultural diversification on the total value of agricultural output of farm households in Sub-Saharan Africa

Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn (2023): The effect of climate change and agricultural diversification on the total value of agricultural output of farm households in Sub-Saharan Africa. Published in: African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics , Vol. 2, No. 18 (December 2023): pp. 152-170.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of temperature and precipitation on the economic value of agricultural output from farm households in six Sub-Saharan African countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering the period from 2008 to 2016, this study explores how the adverse effects of climate change vary among different levels of agricultural diversification. The findings reveal that a one-degree temperature increase negatively impacts the value of agricultural output. Nevertheless, households engaged in diversified production activities exhibit better adaptation to higher temperatures, leading to attenuated effects of climate change. Therefore, this study highlights the critical importance of diversification as a strategy to enhance the resilience of farm households in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: agricultural diversification, agricultural households, climate change, climate resilience, sustainable agriculture
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

References

Abou, S., Ali, M., Wakponou, A. and Sambo, A., 2021. Sorghum farmers’ climate change adaptation strategies in the semiarid region of Cameroon. In African handbook of climate change adaptation 147-165. Springer International Publishing.

Agegnehu, G., Ghizaw, A. and Sinebo, W., 2008. Yield potential and land-use efficiency of wheat and faba bean mixed intercropping. Agronomy for sustainable development, 28, 257-263.

Attavanich, W. and McCarl, B.A., 2014. How is CO 2 affecting yields and technological progress? A statistical analysis. Climatic change, 124, 747-762.

Ault, T.R., 2020. On the essentials of drought in a changing climate. Science, 368(6488), 256-260.

Birthal, P.S., Joshi, P.K., Roy, D. and Thorat, A., 2013. Diversification in Indian agriculture toward high‐value crops: The role of small farmers. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 61(1), 61-91.

Brown, M.E., Funk, C., Pedreros, D., Korecha, D., Lemma, M., Rowland, J., Williams, E. and Verdin, J., 2017. A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions. Climatic Change, 142, 169-182.

Bundala, N., Kinabo, J., Jumbe, T., Rybak, C. and Sieber, S., 2020. Does homestead livestock production and ownership contribute to consumption of animal source foods? A pre-intervention assessment of rural farming communities in Tanzania. Scientific African, 7, p.e00252.

Chonabayashi, S., Jithitikulchai, T. and Qu, Y., 2020. Does agricultural diversification build economic resilience to drought and flood? Evidence from poor households in Zambia. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 15(311-2020-1781), 65-80. Chonabayashi, S. 2021. Essays in Environmental and Development Economics. Ph.D. Dissertation. Cornell University.Christiaensen, L., 2017. Agriculture in Africa – Telling myths from facts: A synthesis. Food Policy, 67, pp.1-11.

Christiaensen, L., Demery, L., Dillon, B., Barrett, CB., Deininger, KW.., Savastano, S., Xia, F., Adjognon, GS., Liverpool-Tasie, LS O.., Reardon, T., Carletto, C., Corral, P., Guelfi, A., McCullough, EB., Palacios-Lopez, A., Kilic, T., Davis, BK., Di Giuseppe, S., Zezza, A., Nagler, P., Naude, W., Sheahan, MB., Binswanger-Mkhize, HP., Omonona, BT., Sanou, A., Ogunleye, WO., Miller, DC., Munoz Mora, JC., Nikoloski, ZS., Hill, R., Ndiaye, M., d’Hotel, EM., Cotty, TL. and Kaminski, J., 2018. Agriculture in Africa - Telling myths from facts. Washington, D.C., World Bank Group.

Damania, R., Desbureaux, S., Hyland, M., Islam, A., Rodella, A.S., Russ, J. and Zaveri, E., 2017. Uncharted waters: The new economics of water scarcity and variability. World Bank Publications.

De Paola, F., Giugni, M., Pugliese, F., Annis, A. and Nardi, F., 2018. GEV parameter estimation and stationary vs. non-stationary analysis of extreme rainfall in African test cities. Hydrology, 5(2), p.28.

Djibo, A.G., Seidou, O., Karambiri, H., Sittichok, K., Paturel, J.E. and Saley, H.M., 2015. Development and assessment of non-linear and non-stationary seasonal rainfall forecast models for the Sirba watershed, West Africa. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4, pp.134-152.

Fleischer, A., Lichtman, I. and Mendelsohn, R., 2008. Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture: Will warming be harmful?. Ecological economics, 65(3), 508-515.

Gannon, C., Kandy, D., Turner, J., Kumar, I., Pilli-Sihvola, K., & Chanda, F. S. (2014). Near-term climate change in Zambia. Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague.

Garcia-Aristizabal, A., Bucchignani, E., Palazzi, E., D’Onofrio, D., Gasparini, P. and Marzocchi, W., 2015. Analysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania. Natural Hazards, 75, pp.289-320.

Giller, K.E., Delaune, T., Silva, J.V., van Wijk, M., Hammond, J., Descheemaeker, K., van de Ven, G., Schut, A.G., Taulya, G., Chikowo, R. and Andersson, J.A., 2021. Small farms and development in sub-Saharan Africa: Farming for food, for income or for lack of better options?. Food Security, 13(6), 1431-1454.

Gosoniu, L., Vounatsou, P., Sogoba, N., Maire, N. and Smith, T., 2009. Mapping malaria risk in West Africa using a Bayesian nonparametric non-stationary model. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 53(9), pp.3358-3371.

Hallegatte, S. and Rozenberg, J., 2017. Climate change through a poverty lens. Nature Climate Change, 7(4), 250-256.

Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., 2016. Unbreakable: building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters. World Bank Publications.

Holden, S.T., 2018. Fertilizer and sustainable intensification in Sub-Saharan Africa. Global food security, 18, pp.20-26.

IPCC. 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

IPCC. 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Synthesis report.

Ires, I. and Jacobs-Mata, I., 2022. Policy support for climate-resilient agricultural transformations: IPSR innovation profile. First edition, December 2022. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization.

Jacobs-Mata, I. and Girvetz, E.H., 2023. CGIAR initiative on Ukama Ustawi: Diversification for resilient agrifood systems in East and Southern Africa: 2022 Technical Report. Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR).

Kar, G., Singh, R. and Verma, H.N., 2004. Alternative cropping strategies for assured and efficient crop production in upland rainfed rice areas of eastern India based on rainfall analysis. Agricultural Water Management, 67(1), 47-62.

Karambiri, H., García Galiano, S.G., Giraldo, J.D., Yacouba, H., Ibrahim, B., Barbier, B. and Polcher, J., 2011. Assessing the impact of climate variability and climate change on runoff in West Africa: the case of Senegal and Nakambe River basins. Atmospheric Science Letters, 12(1), pp.109-115.

Kaumbata, W., Banda, L., Mészáros, G., Gondwe, T., Woodward-Greene, M.J., Rosen, B.D., Van Tassell, C.P., Sölkner, J. and Wurzinger, M., 2020. Tangible and intangible benefits of local goats rearing in smallholder farms in Malawi. Small Ruminant Research, 187, p.106095.

Koskey, G., Leoni, F., Carlesi, S., Avio, L. and Bàrberi, P., 2022. Exploiting plant functional diversity in durum wheat–lentil relay intercropping to stabilize crop yields under contrasting climatic conditions. Agronomy, 12(1), p.210.

Kray, H.A., Heumesser, C., Mikulcak, F., Giertz, A. and Bucik , M., 2019. Productive diversification in African agriculture and its effects on resilience and nutrition (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group.

Kusiima, A., 2023. Assessing the effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions by Agro-pastoralists in Nabiswera sub-county. Doctoral dissertation, Makerere University, Uganda.

Lien, G., Flaten, O., Jervell, A.M., Ebbesvik, M., Koesling, M. and Valle, P.S., 2006. Management and risk characteristics of part‐time and full‐time farmers in Norway. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 28(1), 111-131.

Mano, R. and Nhemachena, C., 2007. Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe: A Ricardian approach. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (4292).

McBride, C.M., Kruger, A.C. and Dyson, L., 2022. Trends in probabilities of temperature records in the non‐stationary climate of South Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 42(3), pp.1692-1705.

Mendelsohn, R., Emanuel, K., Chonabayashi, S. and Bakkensen, L., 2012. The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nature Climate Change, 2(3), 205-209.

Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W.D. and Shaw, D., 1994. The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. The American Economic Review, 753-771.

Mwinkom, F.X., Damnyag, L., Abugre, S. and Alhassan, S.I., 2021. Factors influencing climate change adaptation strategies in North-Western Ghana: Evidence of farmers in the Black Volta Basin in Upper West region. SN Applied Sciences, 3, 1-20.

Nhemachena, C., Hassan, R. and Kurukulasuriya, P., 2010. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on African agricultural production systems. Climate Change Economics, 1(01), 33-55.

Nikoloski, Zlatko, Luc Christiaensen, and Ruth Hill. 2018. Household shocks and coping mechanism: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington D.C: World Bank:123–134.

Rosa, L., Chiarelli, D.D., Sangiorgio, M., Beltran-Peña, A.A., Rulli, M.C., D’Odorico, P. and Fung, I., 2020. Potential for sustainable irrigation expansion in a 3 C warmer climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(47), 29526-29534.

Sanghi, A. and Mendelsohn, R., 2008. The impacts of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India. Global Environmental Change, 18(4), 655-665.

Sekaran, U., Lai, L., Ussiri, D.A., Kumar, S. and Clay, S., 2021. Role of integrated crop-livestock systems in improving agriculture production and addressing food security–A review. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 5, p.100190.

Sesmero, J., Ricker‐Gilbert, J. and Cook, A., 2018. How do African farm households respond to changes in current and past weather patterns? A structural panel data analysis from Malawi. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100(1), 115-144.

Sheahan, M., Barrett, C.B. and Sheahan, M.B., 2014. Understanding the agricultural input landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa: recent plot, household, and community-level evidence. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (7014).

Sheahan, M. and Barrett, C.B., 2017. Ten striking facts about agricultural input use in Sub-Saharan Africa. Food policy, 67, pp.12-25.

Sileshi, G.W., Akinnifesi, F.K., Ajayi, O.C. and Muys, B., 2011. Integration of legume trees in maize-based cropping systems improves rain use efficiency and yield stability under rain-fed agriculture. Agricultural water management, 98(9), 1364-1372.

Sileshi, G.W., Debusho, L.K. and Akinnifesi, F.K., 2012. Can integration of legume trees increase yield stability in rainfed maize cropping systems in Southern Africa?. Agronomy Journal, 104(5), 1392-1398.

Skoufias, E., 2012. The poverty and welfare impacts of climate change: quantifying the effects, identifying the adaptation strategies. World Bank Publications.

USGCRP. 2017. Fourth national climate assessment. Technical report, U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Xiong, W. and Tarnavsky, E., 2020. Better agronomic management increases climate resilience of maize to drought in Tanzania. Atmosphere, 11(9), p.982.

Zhang, X., Yao, G., Vishwakarma, S., Dalin, C., Komarek, A.M., Kanter, D.R., Davis, K.F., Pfeifer, K., Zhao, J., Zou, T. and D'Odorico, P., 2021. Quantitative assessment of agricultural sustainability reveals divergent priorities among nations. One Earth, 4(9), 1262-1277.