Extension du modèle Solow Swan vers une approche plus environnementaliste: un modèle déterministe pour Madagascar

Josué, ANDRIANADY and Andrianavony, Kanto Joviannah (2024): Extension du modèle Solow Swan vers une approche plus environnementaliste: un modèle déterministe pour Madagascar.

Abstract

This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model by incorporating environmental factors, applied specifically to Madagascar. The model simulates three scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario with low savings and high deforestation; (2) an economic reform scenario with increased savings but no environmental improvements; and (3) a combined reform scenario with higher savings and reduced deforestation. The findings reveal that while economic reforms lead to moderate growth, sustainable natural resource management is essential for balanced and resilient development. The study highlights Madagascar’s challenges, including population pressure, deforestation, and climate shocks, and provides insights into policies that align economic and environmental goals. The paper also outlines future improvements, such as developing a stochastic version of the model, to address uncertainties and external shocks more effectively.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Extension of the Solow-Swan model with an environmentalist approach: a deterministic model for Madagascar
• Language: French
• Keywords: Economic simulation, physical capital, human capital, natu ral resources, Madagascar, sustainable development, reforms
• Subjects: A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O44 - Environment and Growth; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q50 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services ; Biodiversity Conservation ; Bioeconomics ; Industrial Ecology

References

[1] Acemoglu, D. (2009). Introduction to modern economic growth. Princeton University Press.

[2] Anderson, Quintero, Manuel, González, Gómez, Mercedes, Gaitán, "Fuzzy classification of countries according to their sustainable economic potential: application of the Solow-Swan and Green Solow models", 2023, DOI https://doi.org/10.31223/x57q3z.

[3] Lucas Jr., R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic develop ment. Journal of Monetary Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/ 0304-3932(88)90168-7

[4] Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407–437.

[5] La Maison de Madagascar Suisse. (2024, November 25). Les cyclones à Madagascar. https://maison-de-madagascar.ch/ tout-sur-madagascar/les-cyclones-a-madagascar/#:~: 21 text=Tous%20les%20deux%20ou%20trois,%20dans%20la% 20mémoire%20des%20gens

[6] Perspective Monde. (2024, November 25). Épargne domestique à Madagascar. https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/ servlet/BMTendanceStatPays/?codeStat=NY.GDS.TOTL. ZS&codePays=MDG&codeTheme=2

[7] Perspective Monde. (2024, November 25). Bilan de la tendance statistique de Madagascar. https://perspective.usherbrooke.ca/bilan/ servlet/BMTendanceStatPays/?codeTheme=1&codeStat= NY.GDS.TOTL.ZS&codePays=MDG&optionsPeriodes= Aucune&codeTheme2=1&codeStat2=x&codePays2=MDG& optionsDetPeriodes=avecNomP

[8] Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513

[9] Swan, T. W. (1956). Economic growth and capital accumulation. Economic Record, 32(2), 334–361. https://doi.org/10.1111/j. 1475-4932.1956.tb00434.x

[10] (2022), "Exact solutions for a Solow-Swan model with non-constant returns to scale", Indian Journal of Pure & Applied Mathematics, DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s13226-022-00341-7.

[11] Vieilledent, G., Grinand, C., Rakotomalala, F. A., Ranaivosoa, R., Rakotoarijaona, J.-R., Allnutt, T. F., & Achard, F. (2018). Combining global tree cover loss data with historical national forest cover maps to look at six decades of deforestation and forest fragmentation in Madagascar. Biological Conservation, 222, 189–197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018. 04.008