How the Liberation Day Announcement is Shaping the Global Trade Order: From Free Trade to Fair Trade Agreements

Ojo, Marianne (2025): How the Liberation Day Announcement is Shaping the Global Trade Order: From Free Trade to Fair Trade Agreements. Forthcoming in: Journal of Finance Research Letters

Abstract

It may be assumed that all of the United States’ trading partners were impacted by the recent “Liberation Day” announcement – an announcement which constitutes “two distinct tariff actions” – as will be highlighted in this paper. However, despite previous concerns of being targeted by their free trade agreement (FTA) partner, Canada and Mexico – as would have been or should be expected, have been exempted from the tariff imposition.

As well as addressing factors which have contributed to the shift from free trade to increasingly and predominantly protectionist stances and most likely, fair trade practices, this paper is aimed at highlighting and explaining the rationales behind the recent historical developments – as well as highlighting those factors that have triggered the build up to the Liberation Day Announcement of the 2nd April 2025.

It is remarked that “Trump’s reciprocal tariff doctrine, holds foreign countries accountable”. Against this backdrop of discontent with World Trade Organisation’s dispute resolution mechanisms, which will be further elaborated on, in the paper, the immediate and possible long term impacts of the Announcement, will be considered.

As well as exploring the reasons for recent developments – by way of reference to historical developments and data, the paper also considers the underlying frameworks governing the calculations of recent tariff rates and hikes. Whilst there are arguments regarding the validity of such calculations, or whether the current scenario justifies the basis for implementing “national emergency measures”, what can be regarded as an emergency response can be determined through a consideration of underlying and contributory factors. If negotiations, and more specifically, bilateral negotiations, take place as hoped, between those countries impacted by the Liberation Day Announcement, financial stability across global markets is expected to be restored. However, if retaliatory measures follow – with an escalation of trade wars, possible repercussions should be cause for concern. The global trading system is still recovering from the recent crisis which was largely uncontrollable – hence, it is more likely (and hoped) that the recent market turbulence and volatilities will be short term.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: financial stability; monetary policy; manufacturing; deregulation; protectionism; free trade agreements; World Trade Organisation; dispute resolution mechanisms
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E42 - Monetary Systems ; Standards ; Regimes ; Government and the Monetary System ; Payment Systems; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates

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