Nato expansion: An open door policy?

Wang, Lijun and Karavias, Yiannis and Banerjee, Anindya (2025): Nato expansion: An open door policy?

Abstract

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shook the world’s security architecture and ultimately led to Finland and Sweden officially joining NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively. A key question which arises then, is what determines NATO membership? Is there an open door policy or are accession decisions based on geopolitics? This paper develops a predictive model assessing the probability of joining NATO for several European countries. The model is based on logis- tic regression and shows that the most important determinants of NATO membership are past geopolitics such as EU and USSR memberships. Less important factors include the strength of economy, political stability and geography. Using a sample from 1979 to 2020, the model predicts that Sweden and Finland were highly likely to join NATO, while the probability of Ukraine’s accession is low.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: NATO,geopolitics,militaryspending,economicgrowth,paneldata,logistic regression.
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C24 - Truncated and Censored Models ; Switching Regression Models ; Threshold Regression Models; H - Public Economics > H5 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies > H56 - National Security and War

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