The impact of Tax Evasion on Economic Growth of Afghanistan: An Empirical Evaluation

Jamalzai, Rahmatullah and Rasa, Muhammad Mirwais and Haq, Irfan Ul (2024): The impact of Tax Evasion on Economic Growth of Afghanistan: An Empirical Evaluation.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of tax evasion on Afghanistan's economic growth using an empirical approach. Tax evasion undermines public revenue, impedes state capacity, and distorts resource allocation — challenges that are particularly acute in fragile, post-conflict economies like Afghanistan. Utilising time-series data spanning 2005-2021, the study employs [e.g., Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)] to evaluate the relationship between estimated levels of tax evasion and key macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth, government expenditure, inflation, and foreign direct investment. The findings reveal a statistically significant and negative relationship between tax evasion and economic growth, underscoring the detrimental effects of a weak tax compliance culture. The results highlight the urgent need for comprehensive tax reforms, strengthened institutional capacity, and enhanced enforcement mechanisms to curb tax evasion and stimulate sustainable economic development in Afghanistan. Policy implications and recommendations for future research are also discussed.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Economic Growth, Afghanistan, Tax Evasion, Tax Compliance, Revenue base
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F18 - Trade and Environment; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G38 - Government Policy and Regulation

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Wani, N.U., Khan, F.N. & Naderi, F. Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Afghanistan: impact, causality, projections, and policy implications. SN Bus Econ 4, 113 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-024-00671-0

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), "Drivers of Export Supply in SAARC: Investigating the Cross Evidence From Afghanistan", Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 61-82. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241004

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), "Impact of Non-Tariff Measures on Trade Within the SAARC Region: An Empirical Investigation of Afghanistan", Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 181-200. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241009

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), "Incidence of Reverse Capital Flight to Afghanistan: An Empirical Examination", Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 131-154. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241007

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Afghanistan's Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements: An Evaluation of Trade Effects, Diversion and Creation, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 155-179. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241008

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Afghanistan's Regional Integration With Central Asia: Identifying Trade Linkages, Economic Recital and Future Latency, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 13-39. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241002

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Export Diversification in ASEAN and SAARC Regions: Exploring Trends Patterns and Determinants Through Empirical Investigation, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 83-103. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241005

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Glossary of Afghan Expressions, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 201-201. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241016

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Index, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241010

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Introduction to the Book, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 3-9. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241001

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Prelims, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. i-xxii. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241011

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Trade Costs of Afghanistan With Its Major Trading Partners: Measurement and Its Determinants, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 105-127. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241006

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), Trade Potential of Afghanistan With SAARC Region and European Union: A Gravity Model Approach, Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 41-57. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241003

Wani, N.U.H. and Rasa, M.M. (2024), Mapping trade opportunities in Central and South Asia: an exploration through trade indices and metrics, Competitiveness Review, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/CR-02-2024-0023

Wani, N.U.H., (2018). Terrorism and foreign direct investment: An empirical analysis of Afghanistan. Kardan Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 1(3), 40-59.

Wani, N.U.H., Dhami, J.K., and Sidana, N. (2022), Impact of education on poverty alleviation in Afghanistan: An empirical evaluation, Kardan Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 5 (1), 1-14. DOI:10.31841/KJSSH.2022.47

Yama, M., & Wani, N. U. H. (2021). Nexus between export diversification and economic growth: A case study of Afghanistan. Kardan Journal of Economics and Management Sciences 4 (1) 1–24, 10.31841/KJEMS.2021.8 https://kardan.edu.af/Research/CurrentIss

Wani, N.U.H., Majidi, B.S., Sidana, N. and Goel, R. (2024), Self-Help Groups in Afghanistan: A Ploy of Economic and Social Empowerment of Women for Sustainable Development, Goel, R., Singh, T., Rahman, M.M., Islam, Q.T. and Baral, S.K. (Ed.) Understanding the Multi-Dimensional Nature of Poverty, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 147-170. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-292-620241008