Une explication des motivations rationnelles de la Chine au surendettement de l'économie américaine.

Jambu, Marc-Antoine (2009): Une explication des motivations rationnelles de la Chine au surendettement de l'économie américaine.

Abstract

The current financial and economic crisis is not du to the Dollar paradox. That's why the growing "Global Imbalances" remains an interesting issue. By mixing theories from the litterature of Foreign Direct Investment in China and the Collateral theory developped in [Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, Garber, (2004)], webuild a model which give an explanation of the American Tresory Bonds reserve held by the Chinese Central Bank. We show that the Chinese governement doesn't really need to worry about the solvability of the American economy. Moreover Chinese governement has rational intensives for american overindebtness. The main limit of this strategy consist in less human capital accumulation expectations from the FDI positive externalities. Besides we show how inflation pressures, du to incomplete sterilisation of the chinese monetary policy, can be moderate by positive productivity and quality shocks. To finish we conclude that Chinese governement has no insentive to protect intellectual property rights, whereas WTO commitments have to be assumed.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Chinese incentives of american overindebtness
• Language: French
• Keywords: FDI, Global imbalances, Collateral Theory
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements

References

Blömström et Kokko (2003):"Human capital and inward FDI" Poncet (2008):"les investissements directs en Chine" Dooley, Faulkerts-Landau, Garber (2004):"The US current account deficit: Collateral for a total return swap"