de Arce, Rafael and Mahia, Ramon (2008): Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_14547.pdf Download (488kB) | Preview |
Abstract
In this paper one survey of econometrics modelling about migration flows determinants is carried out, with an extensive critical review of variables and methods used in recent literature. After it, a rigorous model to forecast migrations flows from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey to EU is developed. The weight of network effects and potential migration in origin countries is pointed out and 15 years of forecast horizon is drawn.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | migration determinants; migration econometric models; migration flows; EU-MPC migration |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F22 - International Migration C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models |
Item ID: | 14547 |
Depositing User: | Rafael de Arce |
Date Deposited: | 09 Apr 2009 06:43 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 23:24 |
References: | Alho, J. (1998). A stochastic forecast of the population of Finland. Reviews 1998/4. Statistics Finland, Helsinki. Alho, J., y B. Spencer (2005). Statistical Demography and Forecasting. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg. Alecke, B., P. Huber, y G. Untiedt. (2001). “What difference a constant makes? How predictable are international migration flows?”. En Migration policies and EU enlargement. The case of Central and Eastern Europe. OECD, Paris, pp. 63–78. Alvarez-Plata, P., H. Brücker y B. Siliverstovs (2003). Potential Migration from Central and Eastern Europe into the EU-15 – An Update. Report for the EC DG of Employment and Social Affairs. Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin. Arango, .J (2003). “La explicación teórica de las migraciones: luz y sombra”. Migración y Desarrollo. Número 1. Octubre 2003. Arellano, M. and R.S. Bond (1991): Some test of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58. Pp: 277-297. Arellano, M. and O. Bover (1995): Another look at the instrumental-variable estimation of error-components model. Journal of Econometrics 68, Pp: 29-52. Bauer, Thomas K. and Klaus F. Zimmermann (1999) Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe. Study for the UK Department of Education and Employment. Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA), Bonn, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London. Bijak, J. (2006) Forecasting International Migration: Selected Theories, Models and Methods. CEFMR Working Papers. 4/2006. Warsaw. Boeri, T. y H Brücker (2001). Eastern Enlargement and EU Labour Markets: Perceptions,challenges and Opportunities. IZA Discussion Paper 256. Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Bonn. Böhning, W.R.; Schaeffer, P.V.; Straubhaar, Th. (1991). Migration pressure: What is it? What can one do about it? (Geneva: ILO, Working Paper No. 55). Borjas (1987). “Self – Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants”. American Economic Review. Vol. 77, Nº 4, pp.531-553 Borjas, G.J. (1989), “Economic theory and international migration”. International Migration Review, 23, 457-485. Borjas, G.J. (1994), “The economics of immigration”. Journal of Economic Literature, 32, 1667- 1717. Borjas, G.J. (1999a), “Economic research on the determinants of immigration: Lessons for the European Union”. World Bank Technical Paper No. 438. Borjas, G.J. (1999b), The economic analysis of immigration. En Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A, (eds. Ashenfelter, O. and Card, D.), Elsevier, North Holland. Bowles, S. (1970): "Migration as Investment: Empirical Tests of the Human Investment Approach to Geographical Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 52, 356-362. Brücker, H., y B. Siliverstovs (2005). On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant is Heterogeneity Across Countries. IZA Discussion Paper 170. Institut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, Bonn. Bruni, M.; Venturini, A. (1995). “Pression migratoire et propension à émigrer: le cas du bassin méditerranéen”, Revue Internationale du Travail, Vol. 134, n. 3 (Genève: BIT). Burniaux, J.-M., R. Duval and F. Jaumotte (2004). Coping with Ageing. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 371, OECD, Paris. Clark, X., T.J. Hatton y J.G Williamson. (2002). “Where do US immigrants come from?. Policy and Sending Countries Fundamentals”. NBER Working Paper Nº 8998, Cambridge. Cobb-Clark, D.A. (1998). “Incorporating US Policy into a Model of Immigration Decision”. Journal of Policy Modelling. Vol 20, nº 5, pp. 621-630. Caixa Catalunya (2007): Report monográfico: los cambios en la tasa de dependencia en España y la contribución de la inmigración. Consumo y economía familiar. N. 46 Marzo 2007. Conde Ruíz, J.I. et al. (2006) “El Sistema de Pensiones en España ante el reto del Envejecimiento”. Presupuesto y Gasto público 44/2006. Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. CPB [Centraal Planbureau] (2004). Arbeidsmigratie uit de Midden- en Oost-Europese toetredings-landen [Labour migration from the Central and Eastern European accession countries]. Notice to the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and employment. CPB, The Hague. De Beer, J. (1997). “The effect of uncertainty of migration on national population forecasts: the case of the Netherlands”. Journal of Official Statistics, 13(3), pp. 227–243. Faini, R. y A. Venturini (1994). "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Paper No.964. Faist, T. (2000). The Volume and Dynamics of International Migration and Transnational Social Spaces. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Fertig, M. (2001). “The economic impact of EU enlargement: assessing the migration potential”. Empirical Economics, 26, 707-720. Fields, G.S. (1991). "Place-To-Place Migration: Some New Evidence". The Review of Economics and Statistics, 61, 21-32. Ghatak, S., P. Levine y S. Wheatley Price (1996), “Migration theories and evidence: an assessment”. Journal of Economic Surveys, 10, 159-198. Giubilaro, D. (1997): Migration from the Maghreb and migration pressures: current situation and future Prospects. International Migration Papers number 15 of International Labour Office (ILO), August, 1997. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/protection/migrant/download/imp/imp15e.pdf Glover, S., C. Gott, A. Loizillon, J. Portes, R. Price, S. Spencer, V. Srinivasan y C. Willis. (2001). Migration: an economic and social analysis. RDS Occasional Paper No. 67, The Home Office. Harris, J. R., y M. P. Todaro, (1970). “Migration, unemployment and development: A two sector analysis”. American Economic Review. 60(1), pp. 126–142. Hatton, T. J. (1995). “A Model of U.K.Emigration, 1870-1913”. Review of Economics and Statistics. 77, pp. 407-15. Hatton, T.J. (1995): A model for UK migration 1870-1913. Review of Economics and Statistics 77 (3), Pp: 407-415. Hatton, T. J., y J. G. Williamson (1998). The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Hatton, T.J. y J. G. Williamson (2002), “What fundamentals drive world migration?”. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3559. Hatton y Wiliamson (2004): ¿cuáles son las causas que mueven la migración mundial? Revista Asturiana de Economía - RAE Nº 30 2004 Hooghe, M., A. Trappers, B. Meuleman, and T. Reeskens (2008): Migration to European Countries: A Structural Explanation of Patterns, 1980–2004. International Migration Review Pp: 476-504. Izquierdo, A. (Dir) (2003). Inmigración, mercado de trabajo y protección social. Consejo Económico y Social. Colección de Estudios. Madrid. Jasso, G., M. R. Rosenzsweig y J. P. Smith (1998). “The changing skill of new immigrants to the United Status: recent trends and their determinants”. NBER Working Paper 6764, Cambridge. Jennissen, R. (2004). Macro-economic determinants of international migration in Europe. Dutch University Press, Amsterdam. http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/267541740. Kamemera, D., V.I. Oguledo, y B. David. (2000). “A Gravity Model Analysis of International Migration to North America”. Applied Economics, Vol. 32, Nº 13, pp. 1745-1755. Keilman, N., D. Q. Pham y A. Hetland (2001). Norway’s Uncertain Demographic Future. Statistics Norway, Oslo. Lee, E. (1966). “A theory of Migration”. Demography, vol. 3, 1, pp. 47–57. Lewis, W. A. (1954) “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour”. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22, pp. 139–91. López Cobo, M (2007). Demographic Migration Data in Spain. Workshop: “Impact of Immigration on HIV and Tuberculosis Epidemiology in the Mediterranean Area”. Lutz, W., W. C. Sanderson y S. Scherbov, (eds.) (2004). The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development. Earthscan, London. Massey, D. S., J. Arango, G. Hugo, A. Kouaouci, A. Pellegrino y J.E. Taylor (1993).”Theories of International Migration: Review and Appraisal”. Population and Development Review, 19(3), pp. 431–466. Massey, D. S., J. Arango, G. Hugo, A. Kouaouci, A. Pellegrino y J. E. Taylor (1998). Worlds in Motion. Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium. Oxford: Clarendon Press. Mayda, A.M. (2005): International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of Economic and Non-Economic Determinants, IZA Bonn, Discussion Paper No. 1590. May 2005 Mincer, J. (1978). “Family Migration Decisions”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, Nº 5, pp. 749-773. Mitchell, J. y N. Pain (2002), “The determinants and methods of modelling international migration: an overview of the literature”, mimeo, NIESR. Mitchell, J. y N. Pain (2003). "The Determinants of International Migration into the UK: A Panel Based Modelling Approach," NIESR Discussion Papers 216, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Namkee A., J.A. Meseguer y J.A. Herce. “Gasto sanitario y envejecimiento de la población en España”. Documentos de trabajo Fundación BBVA. Número 7. 2003. Öberg, S., y A. B. Wils, (1992). East-West migration in Europe. Can migration theories help estimate the numbers?. Popnet, 22, pp. 1–7. OCDE (2000), Reforms for an Ageing Society, OECD, Paris. OCDE (2006), Ageing and Employment Policies, series, OECD, Paris. OCDE. Factbook. 2007. OCDE. MTAS, “Envejecimiento. y políticas de empleo. España”. Colección Informes OCDE. Madrid, 2004. Orłowski, W. (2000). Migration from central and eastern European countries after the accession: Effects for regions, labour markets, and social security systems. Research Bulletin, 2(9), Central Statistical Office, Warsaw, pp. 7–21. Otero, Á. y M.V, Rodríguez- Laso (2004). “Volumen y tendencias de la dependencia asociada al envejecimiento en la población española”. Revista Española de Salud Publica. Mar.-abr. 2004, Vol.78, no.2, pp. 201-213. Pries, L. (1999). Migration and Transnational Social Spaces. Ashgate, Aldershot. Ranis, G. y J. C. H. Fei (1961). “ A Theory of Economic Development”. American Economic Review, 51, pp. 533–65. Ravenstein, E. G. (1885–1889) “The Laws of Migration”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 48: 167–227 y 52, pp. 241–301. Recaño, J. y D. Andreu (2005) Factores sociodemográficos y territoriales de la inmigración irregular en España. Papers de demografia. Nº. 268, 2005. Centro de Estudios Demográficos. Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona. Rotte, R. y M. Vogler (1998) “Determinants of international migration: empirical evidence for migration from developing countries to Germany”. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1920. Sjaastad, L.A. (1962). “The Cost and Return of Human Migration”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.70, nº5, Supplement, pp. 80-93. Sinn, H. W., G. Flaig, M. Werding, S. Munz, N. Duell y H. Hofmann (2001). EUErweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration, Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte. Estudio IFO encargado por el Ministerio Alemán de trabajo. Stark, O. (1991) The Migration of Labor. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991. Stark, O., y D. E. Bloom (1985). “The new economics of labor migration”. American Economic Review, 75(2), pp. 173–178. Stark, O. y J. E. Taylor (1989).Relative Deprivation and International Migration. En Demography, 26, 1, pp. 1–14. Stark, O. y J. E. Taylor (1991).”Migration Incentives, migration types: the role of relative deprivation”. The Economic Journal, 101, pp. 1163-1178. Stark, O., y Y. Wang (2001). “Inducing Human Capital Formation: Migration as a Substitute for Subsidies”. Economics Series No. 100. Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna. Straubhaar, T. (1988). On the Economics of International Migration. Bernand Stuttgart, Verlag Paul Haupt. Swamy, P.A.. and S.S. Arora (1972): The exact finite sample properties of the estimators of coefficients in the error component regression models. Econometrica 40, Pp: 261 – 275. Taylor, J. E. (1986). Differential migration, networks, information and risk. En O. Stark (ed.), Research in Human Capital and Development, Vol. 4: Migration, Human Capital, and Development. JAI Press, Greenwich, CT. Thomas, W. I. y F. Znaniecki (1918–1920) “The Polish Peasant”. En Europe and America. Boston: William Badger Todaro, M. P. (1969). “A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries”. The American Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 1 (1969), pp. 138-148 Todaro, M. P. (1976): Internal Migration in Developing Countries. Ginebra: Oficina Internacional del Trabajo. United Nations. Population Division. World Population Ageing 1950-2050. 2002. Van der Gaag, N. y L. van Wissen (1999), “Analysis and forecasting of international migration by major groups (Part II)”, Working Paper, Eurostat, 3/1999/E/no.9. Vinuesa Angulo, J. (2004). “Análisis del envejecimiento demográfico”. Encuentros Multidisciplinares, nº 16 VI, enero-abril-2004, pp. 30-37 Wallace, T.D. and A. Hussain (1969): The use of error components model in combining cross-section and time-series data. Econometrica 37. Pp: 55-72. Wickramasekara, P. (2001): “Matching between Labour Demand and Supply; Need for Foreign Manpower in the European Labour Markets; Costs and Benefits of Migration for the Countries of Origin”. Presentation in Immigration: International and European Framework, Labour and Social Integration. 29 - 30 October 2001 – National Council for Economy and Labour (Cnel), Rome Willekens, F., y N. Baydar (1986). Forecasting place-to-place migration with generalized linear models. In: R. Woods, and P. H. Rees (eds.), Population structures and models. Allen and Unwin, London, pp. 203–244. Yang, P.Q. (1995). Post 1965 immigration to the United States: Structural Determinants. Praeger, Westport. Zimmermann, K. F. (1995a). "European Migration: Push and Pull," Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics 1994, Supplement to The World Bank Economic Review and The World Bank Research Observer, 313-342. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/14547 |