Bitros, George C. (2009): The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_17436.pdf Download (351kB) | Preview |
Abstract
It is ascertained that the theorem of proportionality, which maintains that replacement investment is a constant proportion of the outstanding capital stock, has several fundamental shortcomings. It derives from a model founded on assumptions that are highly restrictive and unlikely to hold in reality. It is alien to the thinking of researchers in industrial organization and other neighboring fields to economics that treat the durability of capital goods as a choice variable. It ignores several thorny conceptual and methodological issues and, perhaps most important, it may have restrained seriously the progress towards developing models based on more realistic approaches of production. However, despite its shortcomings, the theorem continues to dominate mainstream capital theory, most probably because of: a) its simplicity, and b) the lack of a model that might yield a better theorem in terms of standard criteria, like explanatory and predictive power, simplicity, fruitfulness, etc. For this reason attention is drawn to recent research which shows that a model centered on the heterogeneous structure of capital and the useful lives of its components is both feasible and exceedingly rich in theoretical and empirical implications.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Capital longevity, replacement, depreciation, scrappage, maintenance, utilization, obsolescence. |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E22 - Investment ; Capital ; Intangible Capital ; Capacity |
Item ID: | 17436 |
Depositing User: | George Bitros |
Date Deposited: | 22 Sep 2009 18:44 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 16:17 |
References: | 1. Ambler, S. and Paquet, A., (1994), “Stochastic Depreciation and the Business Cycle,” International Economic Review, 35, 101-116. 2. Auernheimer, L., (1986), “Variable Depreciation and Some of its implications,” Canadian Journal of Economics, 19, 99-113. 3. Barro, R. J., (1972) “Monopoly and Contrived Depreciation,” Journal of Political Economy, 80, 598-602. 4. Benhabib, J. and Rustichini, A., (1991), “Vintage Capital, Investment, and Growth,” Journal of Economic Theory, 55, 323-339. 5. ---------------, (1993), “A vintage capital model of investment and growth: Theory and evidence,” in R. Becker et al. (Eds.), General Equilibrium, Growth and Trade. II The legacy of Lionel W. Mackenzie, Academic Press. 6. Bhattacharyya, S. K. (1965), “Capital Longevity and Economic Growth,” Review of Economics Studies, 32, pp. 39-46. 7. Bischoff, C. W. and Kokkenlenberg, E. C., (1987), “Capital Utilization and De-preciation in Use,” Applied Economics, 19, 995-1007. 8. Bitros, G. C., (2008a) “Aggregation of Producer Durables with Exogenous Tech-nological Change and Endogenous Useful Lives,” Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Eco-nomics, Discussion Paper No. 193. 9. ---------------, (2008b), “The optimal lifetime of assets under uncertainty in the rate of embodied technical change,” Metroeconomica, 59, 173-188. 10. ---------------, (2008c), “Why the Structure of Capital and the Useful Lives of its Components Matter: A Test Based on a Model of Austrian Descent,” Review of Austrian Economics, DOI 10.1007/s11138-008-0049-1. 11. ---------------, and Flytzanis, E., (2009), “Utilization and Maintenance in a Model with Scrapping,” European Journal of Operational Research, 194, pp. 551-573. 12. ----------------------, and Flytzanis, E., (2002), “Towards a General Theory of Real Capital,” in Bitros, G. C. and Katsoulakos, Y., (Eds.), Essays In Economic Theory, Growth and Labor Markets: A fest-schrift in Honor of E. Drandakis, Cambridge UK: Edward Elgar. 13. ------------------------, (2005), “On the Optimal Lifetime of Assets,” Athens Uni-versity of Economic and Business, Department of Econom-ics, Discussion paper No. 170. 14. ----------------, Hritonenko, N., and Yatsenko, Y., (2007), “Investment, Replacement and Scrapping in a Vintage Capital Model with Embodied Technological Change,” Athens University of Economic and Business, Department of Economics, Discussion paper No. 186. 15. Brems, H., (1968), Quantitative Economic Theory: A Synthetic Approach, New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc. 16. Brown, M. and Chang, W. W. (1976) “Capital Aggregation in a General Equilibrium Model of Production,” Econometrica, 44, 1179-1200. 17. Böhm-Bawerk, E. (1889) Positive Theory of Capital, 2nd volume in the 3-volume work Capital and Interest, translated by G. D. Hunke and H. F. Sennholtz, South Holland, Ill.: Libertarian Press, 1959. (The three volumes were originally published in German in 1984, 1989, and 1909). 18. Boucekkine, R., Germain and Licandro, O., (1997), “Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model,” Journal of Economic Theory, 74, 333-348. 19. ----------------, and Magnus, A., (1998), “Creative Destruction, Investment Vola-tility, and the Average Age of Capital,” Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 361-384. 20. ----------------, and Martinez, B., (2003), “Replacement, adoption and economic dynamics: lessons from a canonical creative destruction model,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 14, 339-359. 21. Bulow, J. (1986) “An Economic Theory of Planned Obsolescence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101, 1986. 22. Caballero, R., Engel, M. R. A., Haltiwanger, J. C., Woodford, M., and Hall, R. E., (1995), “Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dy-namics,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995, 1-54. 23. Caballero, R. and Hammour, M., (1994), “The Cleansing Effect of Recessions,” American Economic Review, 84, 1350-1368. 24. ----------------, (1996), “On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 805-852. 25. Chatterjee, S. (2005) “Capital Utilization, Economic Growth and Convergence,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29, 2093-2124. 26. Chirinko, R. S., (1993), Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications, Journal of Economic Literature, 31, 1875-1911. 27. Choi, J. B. and Kollintzas, T. (1985), “ A linear Rational Expectations Model of Aggregate Investment with Endogenous Capital Utilization and Maintenance,” University of Pittsburgh, unpublished mimeo. 28. Coase, R., (1972),”Durability and Monopoly,” Journal of Law and Economics, 15, 143-149. 29. Collard, F. and Kollintzas, T., (1998), ““δ” along the business cycle,” Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 93. 30. Cooley T. F., Greenwood, J. and Yorukoglu, M. (1997) “The Replacement Problem,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 40, 457-499. 31. Cummings, J. G. and Violante, G. L., (2002), “Investment-Specific Technical Change in the United States (1947-2000): Measurement and Macroeconomic Consequences,” Review of Economic Dynamics, 5, 243-284. 32. Dean, B. V., (1962), “Replacement Theory,” in R. L. Ackoff (ed.) Progress In Operations Research, New York: J. Wiley & Sons, 330-362. 33. Domar, E. D., (1946), “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment,” Econometrica, 14, 137-147. 34. -----------------, (1953),”Depreciation, Replacement, and Growth,” Economic Journal, 63, 1-32. 35. Dosi, G., Fagiolo, G., and Roventini, A., (2006), “An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles,” Computational Economics, 27, 3-34. 36. Dueker, M. J. and Fischer, A. M., (2003), “Fixing Swiss Potholes: The Importance of Improvements,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Working Paper 2001-025B. 37. -----------------, and Dittmar, R., (2002), “Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3192. 38. Duhem, P., (1908), Sozein Ta Phainomena, Essai sur la Notion de Theories Phy-sique de Platon a Galilee, Paris: Herman. English translation Edmond Dollard and Chaninah Marschler, To Save the Phai-nomena, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1969. 39. Eisner, R., (1952), “Depreciation Allowances, Replacement Requirements and Growth,” American Economic Review, 42, 820-831. 40. -------------, (1956), “Technological Change, Obsolescence and Aggregate Demand,” American Economic Review, 46, 92-105. 41. Epstein, L. and Denny, M., (1980), “Endogenous Capital Utilization in a Short-Run Production Model,” Journal of Econometrics, 12, 189-207. 42. Feldstein, M. S., (1972/1974), “Tax Incentives, Stabilization Policy, and The Proportional Replacement Hypothesis: Some Negative Conclusions,” Southern Economic Journal, 40, 544-552. This paper appeared under the same title in 1972 as Discussion Paper Number 249, Harvard Institute of Economic Research. 43. ---------------- and M. Rothschild, (1972/1974), “Towards an Economic Theory of Replacement Investment”, Econometrica, Vol. 42, 393-423. This paper appeared under the same title in 1972 as Discussion Paper Number 249, Harvard Institute of Economic Research. 44. Friedman, M., (1953), “The Methodology of Positive Economics,” in Essays in Posi-tive Economics, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 3-43. 45. Garrison, R. W., (2006), “Reflections on Reswitching and Roundaboutness,” in Roger Koppl (ed.) Money and Markets: Essays in Honor of Leland B. Yeager, New York: Rutledge. 46. Greenwood, J., Herkowitz, Z., and Huffman, G. W., (1988), “Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle,” American Economic Review, 78, 402-417. 47. Gylfanson, T. and Zoega, G., (2002), “Obsolescence,” Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper 2833. 48. Haavelmo, T. (1960) A Study in the Theory of Investment, Chicago: The Univer-sity of Chicago Press. 49. Hall, R. E., (1968), “Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the Dual,” Review of Economic Studies, 35, pp. 35-46. 50. Harrod, R. F., (1948), Towards a Dynamic Economics, New York: St Martin’s Press Inc. 51. Hayek, F. A., (1939), Profits, Interest and Investment, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, Ltd. 52. Herkowitz, Z., (1986), “The real interest rate and aggregate supply,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 18, 121-145. 53. Hicks, J., (1965), Capital and Growth, Oxford: Oxford University Press. 54. -----------------, (1946), Value and Capital, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2nd edition. 55. Hulten, C. R. and Wykoff, F., (1981), “The Estimation of Economic depreciation Using Vintage Asset Prices,” Journal of Econometrics, 15, 367-396. 56. -----------------, Robertson, J.W. and Wykoff, F. (1989) “Energy, Obsolescence, and the Productivity Slowdown,” in D. W. Jorgenson and R. Landau (eds.) Technology and Capital Formation, Cambridge MA: MIT Press, 225-258. 57. Ioyha, M. A., (1971), “Capital Durability and the Golden Rule of Capital Accu-mulation: A Note,” Southern Economic Journal, 38, 93-96. 58. Johansen, L., (1959), “Substitution versus Fixed Production Coefficients in the Theory of Economic Growth: A Synthesis,” Econometrica, 27, 157-176. 59. Jorgenson, D. W. (1963) “Capital Theory and Investment Behavior,” American Economic Review, 52, 247-259. 60. -----------------, (1965), “Anticipations and Investment Behavior,” in The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the United States Chicago: Rand McNally and Co, 35-92. 61. -----------------, (1966), “The Embodiment Hypothesis,” Journal of Political Economy, 74, 1-17. 62. -----------------, (1974), “The Economic Theory of Replacement and Depreciation,” in W. Sellekaerts (ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory: Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen, New York: International Arts and Sciences Press. From Feldstein (1974) it follows that he was aware of this paper as forthcoming from 1972. 63. -----------------, McCall, J. J., and Radner, R., (1967), Optimal Replacement Pol-icy, Chicago: Rand McNally & Company. 64. ----------------- and Stephenson, J., (1967), “Investment Behavior in U. S. Manu-facturing, 1947-1970,” Econometrica, 35, 169-200. 65. ----------------- and Stephenson, J., (1969), “Issues in the Development of the Neoclassical Theory of Investment,” Review of Economics and Statistics, LI, 346-353. 66. Kamien, M. I., and Schwartz, N. L. (1971) “Optimal Maintenance and Sale Age for a Machine Subject to Failure”, Management Science, 17, 495-504. 67. -----------------, (1974), “Product Durability under Monopoly and Competition,” Econometrica, 42, 289-301. 68. Keynes, J. M., (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, New York: Harcourt, Brace, and Company. 69. Kinokuni, H., (1999) “Repair Market Structure, Product Durability, and Monopoly,” Australian Economic Papers, 38, 343-353. 70. Kirzner, I. M., (1966), An Essay on Capital, New York: Augustus M. Kelley. 71. ----------------- (1976), “The Theory of Capital”, in E. G. Dolan (ed.), The Foun-dations of Modern Austrian Economics, Kansas City: Sheed and Ward. 72. Kleiman, E. and Ophir, T. (1966) “The Durability of Durable Goods,” Review of Economic Studies, 33, 165-178. 73. Lachmann, L. M., (1956/1978) Capital and its Structure, Kansas City: Sheed, Andrews, and McMeel. 74. -----------------, (1947), “Complementarity and Substitution,” Economica, 14, 108-119. 75. Licandro, O. and Puch, L. A. (2000) “Capital Utilization, Maintenance Costs and Business Cycle,” Annales d’ Economie et de Statistique, 58, 144-164. 76. -----------------, and Ruiz-Tamarit, J. R., (2001), “Optimal Growth under Endogenous Depreciation, Capital Utilization and Maintenance Costs,” Investigaciones Economicas, XXV, 543-559. 77. Machlup, F., (1955), ‘the Problem of Verification in Economics,” Southern Economic Journal, 22, pp. 1-21. Also in G. C. Bitros (ed.), Selected Economic Writings of Fritz Machlup, New York: New York University Press, 1976, pp.57-78. 78. Malcomson, J. M. (1975) “Replacement and the Rental Value of Capital Equipment Subject to Obsolescence,” Journal of Economic Theory, 10, 24-41. 79. Mann, D. P. (1992) “Durable Goods Monopoly and Maintenance,” International Journal of Industrial Organization, 10, 65-79. 80. Massell, B. F., (1962), “Investment, Innovation, and Growth,” Econometrica, 30, 239-252. 81. McCall, J. J., (1965), “Maintenance Policies for Stochastically Failing Equip-ment: A Survey,” Management Science, 11, 493-524. 82. McGrattan, E. R. and Schmitz Jr. J. A., (1999) “Maintenance and Repair: Too Big to Ignore” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 2-13. 83. McHugh, R. and Lane, J. (1987) “The age of capital, the Age of Utilized Capital and the Embodiment Hypothesis,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 362-367. 84. Merrick, J. J., (1984), “The anticipated real interest rate, capital utilization and the cyclical pattern of real wages,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 13, 17-30. 85. Miller, E. M., (1982), “Capital Aggregation in the Presence of Obsolescence-Inducing Technical Change,” Review of Income and Wealth, 29, 284-296. 86. -----------------, (1990), “Can a Perpetual Inventory Capital Stock be used for Production Function Parameter Estimation?” Review of Income and Wealth, 36, 67-82. 87. Mises, L. V., (1959), Human Action, New Haven, Con: Yale University Press. 88. Nickell, S, (1975) “A Closer Look at Replacement Investment,” Journal of Economic Theory, 10, 54-88. 89. Parks, R. W., (1974), “The Demand and Supply of Durable Goods and Durabil-ity,” American Economic Review, 64, 37-55. 90. -----------------, (1979), “Durability, Maintenance and the Price of Used Assets,” Economic Enquiry, 17, 197-217. 91. Pierskalla, W. P., and Voelker, J. A., (1976), “A Survey of Maintenance Models: The Control and Surveillance of Deteriorating Systems,” Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 23, 353-388. 92. Popper, K. R., (1935), Logik der Forschung, Vienna: Springer Verlag.Translated into English as The Logic of Scientific Discovery, London: Hutchinson, 1959. 93. Preinreich, G. A. D., (1940), “The Economic Life of Industrial Equipment”, Econometrica, Vol. 8, 12-44. 94. Robinson, J., (1953), “The Production Function and the Theory of Capital,” Review of Economic Studies, 21, 81-106. 95. -----------------, (1959), “Some Problems of Definition and Measurement of Capital,” Oxford Economic Papers, 11, 157-166. 96. -----------------, (1975), “The Unimportance of Reswitching,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89, 32-39. 97. Rubos, B. and Auernheimer, L., (1997), “Endogenous Capital Utilization in a Neoclassical Growth” Model, ITAM, DP 9704, Mexico. 98. Rust, J. (1987) “Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher,” Econometrica, 55, 999-1033 99. -----------------, (1986), “When is it Optimal to Kill off the Market for Used Durables Goods,” Econometrica, 54, 65-86. 100. Samuelson, P. A., (1947), Foundations of Economic Analysis, Cambridge Mass.: Harvard University Press. 101. -----------------, (1962), “Parable and Realism in Capital Theory: The Surrogate Production Function, Review of Economic Studies, 29, 193-206. 102. -----------------, (1966), “A Summing Up,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 568-583. 103. Schmalensee, R. (1974) “Market Structure, Durability, and Maintenance Effort,” Review of Economic Studies, 41, 277-287. 104. Schumpeter, J. A., (1954), History of Economic Analysis, New York: Oxford University Press. 105. Sheshinski, E., “Balanced growth and stability in the Johansen vintage model,” Review of Economic Studies, 34, 239-248. 106. Smith, V. L., (1957), “Economic Equipment Policies: An Evaluation.” Management Science, 4, 20-37. 107. ----------------- (1961) Investment and Production: A Study in the Theory of the Capital-Using Enterprise, Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press. 108. Solow, R. M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94. 109. -----------------, (1962), “Substitution and Fixed Proportions in the Theory of Capital,” Review of Economic Studies, 29, 207-218. 110. -----------------, (1997), "Is There a Core of Usable Macroeconomics We Should All Believe In?" American Economic Review, 87, 230-32. 111. -----------------, Tobin, J., Von Weizsacker, C. and Yaari, M., (1966), “Neoclassical growth with fixed factor proportions,” Review of Economic Studies, 33, 79-115. 112. Swan, P. L., (1971), “Optimum Durability, Second-Hand Markets, and Planned Obsolescence,” Journal of Political Economy, 80, 575-585. 113. -----------------, (1977), “Product Durability under Monopoly and Competition: Comment," Econometrica, 45, 229-236. 114. Taubman, P. and Wilkinson, M. (1970) “User Cost, Output, and Unexpected Price Changes,” in E. D. Phelps et al (Eds) Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, New York: W. W. Norton and Company Inc., 411-420. 115. Terborgh, G., (1949), Dynamic Equipment Policy, New York: McGraw-Hill. 116. Thompson, G. L. (1968) “Optimal Maintenance Policy and Sale Date of a Machine,” Management Science, 14, 543-550. 117. Tinbergen, J., (1942), “Zur Theorie der langfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung,” Wirtschatliches Archiv, 55, 511-549. 118. Waldman, M. (1993) “A New Perspective on Planned Obsolescence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 273-283. 119. Whelan, K., (2005), “Embodiment, Productivity, and the Age Distribution of Capital,” http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5912/. 120. Winston, G. C. (1974) “The Theory of Capital Utilization and Idleness,” Journal of Economic Literature, 12, 1301-1320. 121. Zarembka, P. (1975) “Capital Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Two-Sector Model,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89, 103-114. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/17436 |