Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System

Reinhart, Carmen and Goldstein, Morris and Kaminsky, Graciela (2000): Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System. Published in: Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets (2000)

Abstract

In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue, by tabulating for each of the monthly indicators the average number of months in advance of the crisis when the first signal occurs; this, of course, does not preclude the fact that the indicator may continue to give signals through the entire period immediately preceding the crisis. Indeed, for the more reliable indicators signals tend to become increasingly persistent ahead of crises.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: crisis, leading indicator, banking, exchange rate, forecasting
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F32 - Current Account Adjustment ; Short-Term Capital Movements; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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