Un Análisis de Comportamiento a Nivel de Agente de la Encuesta de Expectativas de Inflación del BCU

Borraz, Fernando and Gianelli, Diego (2010): Un Análisis de Comportamiento a Nivel de Agente de la Encuesta de Expectativas de Inflación del BCU.

Abstract

Inflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation expectation survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The main findings indicate: i) a low predictive power of the analysts surveyed in the 12-month horizon; ii) a convergence of the individual forecasts to the released monthly median iii) an overweight of the inflation target ceiling and the dynamics of the inflation, and iv) a underweight of monetary policy instruments. With respect to the evidence of rationality, we find the partial use of available information and in some cases, there is a systematic bias.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: A Behavior Analysis of the BCU Inflation Expectation Survey
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: inflation expectations, rationality, forecast errors
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D85 - Network Formation and Analysis: Theory

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