CONSUMER CREDIT DELINQUENCY AND BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING USING ADVANCED ECONOMETRC MODELING

Ji, Tingting (2004): CONSUMER CREDIT DELINQUENCY AND BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING USING ADVANCED ECONOMETRC MODELING.

Abstract

This research paper empirically shows that unemployment is significant in determining both consumer bankruptcy filings and delinquency even after controlling for household demographics. Furthermore, I show that unemployment and the debt/wealth ratio also affect the choice of whether to file for bankruptcy under chapter 7 or chapter 13, after controlling for demographics. The paper then points out some of the implications the empirical results have for policy-makers and banking regulators.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: KPMG LLP
• Language: English
• Keywords: consumer credit risk; delinquency; bankruptcy; advanced empirical econometrics; financial economics; consumer finance
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G0 - General; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E21 - Consumption ; Saving ; Wealth; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G20 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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