Structure, agency and change in the car regime: A review of the literature

Marletto, Gerardo (2010): Structure, agency and change in the car regime: A review of the literature. Published in: European Transport No. 47 (April 2011): pp. 71-88.

Abstract

This paper is aimed at filling the gap between the already well structured literature on the 'car regime' and the debate on policies for sustainable transport. Two main results emerge from the literature on the past and current evolution of the car regime: 1) the car regime was established thanks to the ability of purposeful private actors to use the technology of internal combustion to influence markets and institutions, and finally society as a whole; 2) previous attempts to make urban and regional mobility more sustainable fail because multiple - and mutually reinforcing - path-dependence phenomena lock the society into the car regime. For the future, the dominant scenario appears to be the internal transformation of the existing car regime, which is currently driven by the automotive industry and based on hybrid technology; the emergence of an alternative electric car regime - driven by producers of batteries and managers of electric utilities - remains a secondary option. Further research is needed to understand how - starting from the existing alternatives to the car and the innovations in the car itself - a coalition of public and private actors may be promoted and sustained to create a new regime of sustainable mobility.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Car-based mobility; Regime; Sustainable Transport; Transport Policy
• Subjects: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R4 - Transportation Economics > R40 - General; B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B52 - Institutional ; Evolutionary

References

Akerman J. and Hojer M. (2006). How much transport can the climate stand?–Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050. Energy Policy, 34 (14), 1944-1957 Amendola M. and Gaffard J.L. (1998). Out of Equilibrium. Clarendon Press, Oxford Amendola M. and Gaffard J.L. (2006). The Market Way to Riches: Behind the Myth. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham and Northampton Arthur B.W. (1984). Competing Technologies and Economic Prediction. Options, n. 2, 10-13 Arthur B.W. (1999). Complexity and the Economy. Science, 284 (1), 107-109 Avadikyan A., Llerena P. (2010). A real options reasoning approach to hybrid vehicle investments. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77 (4), 649–661 Banister D. (2008). The sustainable mobility paradigm. Transport Policy, 15 (2), 73-80 Bergek A., Jacobsson S., Carlsson B., Lindmark S., Rickne A. (2008). Analyzing the functional dynamics of technological innovation systems: A scheme of analysis. Research Policy, 37 (3), 407–429 Berkhout F. (2002). Technological regimes, path dependency and the environment. Global Environmental Change, 12 (1), 1–4 Best M.B. (1982). The political economy of socially irrational products. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 6 (1), 53-64 Black (2006). Internal combustion. St. Martin'Press, New York Bristow A.L., Tight M., Pridmore A., May A.D. (2008). Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050. Energy Policy, 36 (9), 3427-3435 Brown M.B. (2001). The Civic Shaping of Technology: California's Electric Vehicle Program. Science, Technology, &HumanV alues, 26 (1), 56-81 Brown H.S., Vergragt P.J., Green K., Berchicci L. (2004). Bounded socio-technical experiments (BSTEs): higher order learning fir transitions towards sustainable mobility, In: Elzen B., Geels F.W., Green K. (Eds.) System innovation and the transition to sustainability. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Button K.J. (2005). Market and Government Failures in Transportation. In: Button K.J. and Hensher D.A. (Eds.) Handbook of transport strategy, policy and institutions. Elsevier, Oxford Calef D., Goble R. (2007). The allure of technology: how France and California promoted electric and hybrid vehicles to reduce air pollution. Policy Sciences, 40 (1), 1–34 Cimoli M., Dosi G., Nelson R., Stiglitz J. (2009). Institutions and Policies Shaping Industrial Development: An Introductory Note, In: Cimoli M., Dosi G., Stiglitz J. (Eds.) Industrial Policies and Development. The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation, Oxfors University Press, Oxford and New York Deloitte (2009). A new era. Accelerating toward 2020 - An automotive industry transformed. Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Diana M. (2010). From mode choice to modal diversion: A new behavioural paradigm and an application to the study of the demand for innovative transport services. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77 (3), 429–441 Dosi G. and Grazzi M. (2010). On the nature of technologies: knowledge, procedures, artifacts and production inputs. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34 (1), 173–184 EEA (2008). Beyond transport policy – exploring and managing the external drivers of transport demand. EEA Technical Report, No 12/2008, Copenhagen Elzen B. Geels F.W., Hofman P.S., Green K. (2004). Socio-technical scenarios as a tool for tranition policy: an example from the traffic and transport domain, In: Elzen B., Geels F.W., Green K. (Eds.) System innovation and the transition to sustainability. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Foxon T.J., Reed M.S., Stringer L.C. (2009). Governing Long-Term Social-Ecological Change: What Can the Adaptive Management and Transition Management Approaches Learn from Each Other? Environmental Policy and Governance, 19 (1), 3-20 Freeman C. and Soete L. (1997). The Economics of Industrial Innovation. MIT Press, Cambridge (MA) Freeman C. and Louca F. (2001). As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolutions. Oxford University Press, Oxford Geels F.W. (2004). From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems. Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory. Research Policy, 33 (6-7), 897–920 Geels F.W. (2005a). Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-Technical Analysis. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Geels F.W. (2005b). The Dynamics of Transitions in Socio-Technical Systems: A Multi-level Analysis of the Transition Pathway from Horse-drawn Carriages to Automobiles (1860–1930). Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 17 (4), 445–476 Geels F.W. and Schot J. (2007). Typology of socio-technical transition pathways. Research Policy, 36 (3), 399-417 Genus A., Coles A. (2008). Rethinking the multi-level perspective of technological transitions. Research Policy, 37 (9), 1436–1445 Giddens A. (1984). The Constitution of Society. Polity Press, Cambridge Goldman T. and Gorham R. (2006). Sustainable urban transport: Four innovative directions. Technology in Society, 28 (1-2), 261-273 Hajer M. and Laws D. (2006). Ordering through Discourse. In: Moran M., Rein M., Goodin R.E. (Eds.) The Oxford Handbook of Public Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford Heffner R.R., Kurani K.S., Turrentine T.S. (2007). Symbolism in California’s early market for hybrid electric vehicle. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and the Environment, 12 (6), 396-413 Hickman R. and Banister D. (2007). Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030. Transport Policy, 14 (5), 377-387 Hickman R., Ashiru O. and Banister D. (2010). Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London . Transport Policy, 17 (1), 110-125 Hodgson G.M. (2006). What Are Institutions? Journal of Economic Issues, 40 (1), 1-25 Hodgson G.M. and Knudsen T. (2006). Why we need a generalized Darwinism, and why generalized Darwinism is not enough. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 61 (1), 1–19 Holtz G., Brugnach M., Pahl-Wostl C. (2008). Specifying 'regime' — A framework for defining and describing regimes in transition research. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 75 (5), 623–643 Hoogma R., Kemp R., Schot J., Truffer B. (2002). Experimenting for sustainable transport: the approach of strategic niche management. Spon Press, Oxon Ieromonachou P., Potter S., Warren J.P. (2007). A Strategic Niche Analysis of Urban Road Pricing in the UK and Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, 7 (1), 15-38 Jacobsson S. and Johnson A. (2000). The diffusion of renewable energy technology: an analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy, 28 (9), 625-640 Johansson B. (2009). Will restrictions on CO2 emissions require reductions in transport demand? Energy Policy, 37 (8), 3212-3220 Kemp R. (2005). Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate in California: misguided policy or example of enlightened leadership?, In: Sartorius C. and Zundel S. (Eds.) Time Strategies, Innovation and Environmental Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Kemp R. and Rotmans J. (2004). Managing the transition to sustainable mobility. In: Elzen B., Geels F.W., Green K. (Eds.) System innovation and the transition to sustainability. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham Kemp R., Avelino F., Bressers N. (this Issue). Transition Management as a Model for Sustainable Mobility. European Transport/Trasporti Europei Köhler J. (2006). Transport and the environment: the need for policy for long-term radical change. Intelligent Transport Systems, 153 (4), 292-301 Köhler J., Whitmarsh L., Nykvist B., Schilperoord M., Bergman N., Haxeltine A. (2009). A transitions model for sustainable mobility. Ecological economics, 68 (12), 2985-2995 Leydesdorff L. and Meyer M. (2006). Triple Helix indicators of knowledge-based innovation systems. Introduction to the special issue. Research Policy, 35 (10), 1441–1449 Litman T. (2005). Efficient vehicles versus efficient transportation. Comparing transportation energy conservation strategies. Transport Policy, 12 (2), 121-129 Loorbach D. (2007). Transition Management: New Mode of Governance for Sustainable Development. International Books, Utrecht Maggi S. (2005). Storia dei trasporti in Italia (History of transport in Italy). Il Mulino, Bologna Maréchal K. (2010). Ecological Economics, 69 (5), 1104-114 Markard J. and Truffer B. (2008). Technological innovation systems and the multi-level perspective: Towards an integrated framework. Research Policy, 37 (4), 596-615 May A.D., Page M., Hull A. (2008). Developing a set of decision-support tools for sustainable urban transport in the UK. Transport Policy, 15 (6), 328-340 Meadowcroft J. (2009). What about the politics? Sustainable development, transition management, and long term energy transitions. Policy Science, 42 (4), 232-340 Metcalfe J.S. (2010). Technology and economic theory. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34 (1), 153–171 McCollum D. and Yang C. (2009). Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications. Energy Policy, 37 (12), 5580-5596 Moriarty P. and Honnery D. (2008). Low-mobility: The future of transport. Futures, 40 (10), 865–872 Nelson R.R. (2008). What enables rapid economic progress: What are the needed institutions? Research Policy, 37 (1), 1-11 Nelson R.R. and Winter S.G. (1982). An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (MA) and London Nieuwenhuis P., Wells P.. Vergragt P.J. (2004). Introduction to the Special Issue on Technological Change and Regulation in the Car Industry, Greener Management International, n. 47 Nill J. and Kemp R. (2009). Evolutionary approaches for sustainable innovation policies: From niche to paradigm? Research Policy, 38 (4) 668–680 North D. (2005). Understanding the process of economic change. Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford Nykvist B., Whitmarsh L. (2008). A multi-level analysis of sustainable mobility transitions: Niche development in the UK and Sweden. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 75 (9), 1373–1387 Oltra V., Saint Jean M. (2009). Sectoral systems of environmental innovation: An application to the French automotive industry. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 76 (4), 567–583 Orsato R.J. and Wells P. (2007). U-turn: the rise and demise of the automobile industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15 (11-12), 994-1006 Ostrom E. (2000). Collective Action and the Evolution of Social Norms. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14 (3), 137-158 Paolini F. (2007). Storia sociale dell'automobile in Italia (Social history of the car in Italy). Carocci, Roma Pavitt K. (1999). Technology, Management and Systems of Innovation. EdwardElgar, Cheltenham Perez C. (2010). Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34 (1), 185-202 Rammel C. and van den Bergh J.C.J.M. (2003 ). Evolutionary policies for sustainable development: adaptive flexibility and risk minimising. Ecological Economics, 47 (2-3), 121– 133 Rao H. (2004). Institutional activism in the early American automobile industry. Journal of Business Venturing, 19 (3), 359–384 Raux C. (2007). How should transport emissions be reduced? Potential for emission trading systems. Discussion Paper, No. 2008-1, OECD-ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Rietveld P. and Stough R.R. (2005). Institutional dimensions of sustainable transport. In: Rietveld P. and Stough R.R. (Eds.) Barriers to sustainable transport, Spon Press, Oxon Safarzynska K. and van den Bergh J.C.J.M (2010a). Demand-supply coevolution with multiple increasing returns: Policy analysis for unlocking and system transitions. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77 (2), 297–317 Safarzynska K. and van den Bergh J.C.J.M (2010b). Evolving power and environmental policy: Explaining institutional change with group selection. Ecological Economics, 69 (4), 743–752 Sanne C. (2002). Willing consumers—or locked-in? Policies for a sustainable consumption. Ecological Economics. 42 (1-2), 273-287 Sartorius C. (2006). Second-order sustainability—conditions for the development of sustainable innovations in a dynamic environment. Ecological Economics, 58 (2), 268– 286 Schot J., Hoogma R., Elzen B. (1994). Strategies for shifting technological systems. The case of the automobile system. Futures, 26 (10), 1060-1076 Schot J. and Geels F.W. (2007). Niches in evolutionary theories of technical change. A critical survey of the literature. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 17 (5), 605–622 Shen J., Sakata Y., Hashimoto Y. (2008). Is individual environmental consciousness one of the determinants in transport mode choice? Applied Economics, 40 (10), 1229–1239 Shove E. and Walker G. (2007). CAUTION! Transitions ahead: politics, practice, and sustainable transition management. Environment and Planning A, 39 (4), 763-770 Silverberg G., Dosi G., Orsenigo L. (1988). Innovation, diversity and diffusion: a self-organisation model. The Economic Journal, 98 (5), 1032-1054 Simon, H. A. (1987). Models of Man. Garland, New York/London Smith A., Stirling A., Berkhout B. (2005). The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions. Research Policy, 34 (10), 1491–1510 Smith A. and Kern F. (2009). The transition storyline in Dutch environmental policy. Environmental Politics, 18 (1), 78-98 Sovacool B.K., Hirsh R.F. (2009). Beyond batteries: An examination of the benefits and barriers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) transition. Energy Policy, 37 (3), 1095–1103 Stanley J.K., Hensher D.A., Loader C. (2009). Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas. Transportation Research Part A, doi:10.1016/j.tra.2009.04.005 Suurs R.A.A., Hekkert M.P., Kieboom S., Smits R.E.H.M. (2010). Understanding the formative stage of technological innovation system development: The case of natural gas as an automotive fuel. Energy Policy, 38 (1), 419–431 Unruh G.C. (2000). Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy, 28 (12), 817-830 Urry J. (2008). Governance, flows, and the end of the car system? Global Environmental Change, 18 (3), 343– 349 van Bree B., Verbong G.P.J., Kramer G.J. (2010). A multi-level perspective on the introduction of hydrogen and battery-electric vehicles. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77 (4), 529–540 van den BerghJ.C.J.M., van Leeuwen E.S., Oosterhuis F.H., Rietveld P., Verhoef E.T. (2007). Social learning by doing in sustainable transport innovations: Ex-post analysis of common factors behind successes and failures. Research Policy, 36 (2), 247-259 van den Bosch S.J.M., Brezet J.C., Vergragt P.J. (2005). How to kick off system innovation: a Rotterdam case study of the transition to a fuel cell transport system. Journal of Cleaner Production, 13 (10-11), 1027-1035 Vergragt P.J. and Brown H.S. (2007). Sustainable mobility: from technological innovation to societal learning. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15 (11-12), 1104-1115 Vieira J., Moura F., Viegas J.M. (2007). Transport policy and environmental impacts: The importance of multi-instrumentality in policy integration. Transport Policy, 14 (5), 421-432 Voß J.P., Bauknecht D., Kemp R. (Eds.) (2006). Reflexive governance for sustainable development. Routledge, Cheltenham Voß J.P., Smith A., Grin J. (2009). Designing long-term policy: rethinking transition management. Policy Science, 42 (4), 275–302 Walker W. (2000). Entrapment in large technology systems: institutional commitment and power relations. Research Policy, 29 (7-8), 833–846 Witt U. (2008). Observational learning, group selection, and societal evolution. Journal of Institutional Economics, 4 (1), 1–24 Zweynert J. (2009). Interests versus culture in the theory of institutional change? Journal of Institutional Economics, 5 (3), 339–360