Macromodel estimations for the Romanian "pre-accession economic programme

Dobrescu, Emilian (2001): Macromodel estimations for the Romanian "pre-accession economic programme. Published in: Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting , Vol. 1, No. Supplement 1 (2002): pp. 5-38.

Abstract

The new (2002) version"" of the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous 2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian economy. Obviously, there are numerous questions that should be analysed from this perspective. The paper is covering three groups of issues. The first chapter attempts to define some reference points, which have to be considered during the updating of the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme". The contents and the main functional characteristics of the macromodel used in the simulations for this purpose are examined in the second chapter. The third chapter discusses the computational hypotheses and presents the numerical estimations for two scenarios, considered by the author as the most relevant for the period 2002-2005. Some concluding remarks close this explorative study.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: macromodel, forecasting
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods

References

Balassa, B. (1964): "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal", Journal of Political Economy, 72 (December), pp.584-596.

Bhagwati J. (1984): "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?", Economic Journal 94, June, pp.279-280.

Buiter W.H. and C.Grafe (2001): "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries", in Revue d'Economie Financière, Special Issue: "Ten Years of Transition in Eastern European Countries - Achievement and Challenges", Paris, pp.287-318.

Dobrescu E. (2000): Macromodels of the Romanian Transition Economy, Expert Publishing House.

Dobrescu E. (2002): "Updated Scenarios for the Romanian Economy - Medium-Term Dynamics", Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, No.1, pp.5-16.

Dornbush R. (1992): "Purchasing Power Parity", in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money & Finance, Vol.3, New York, Stockton Press, pp.236-244.

Dornbush R. (1994): Exchange Rate and Inflation, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Engel C. (1993): "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation", Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (August), pp.35-50.

EUROSTAT (2001): Entreprises en Europe, Office des publications officielles des Communautés Européennes, Brussels.

Frenkel J.A, and A.K. Rose (1996): "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries", Journal of International Economics 40 (February), pp.209-224.

Heston A., D A. Nuxoll and R. Summers (1994): "The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parities: Some New Evidence", Review of International Economics 2(3), October, pp.227-243.

Ionete C. (1993): Criza de sistem a economiei de comandă şi etapa sa explozivă, Editura Expert, Bucharest.

Ionete C. and P.Wagner, (coord.) (1997): National Human Development Report, Commissioned by UNDP, Editura Expert, Bucharest.

Ionete C. and C.Chircă, (coord.) (1998): Raportul Naţional al Dezvoltării Umane, Commissioned by PNUD, Editura Expert, Bucharest.

Johansen S. and K. Juselius (1992): "Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and UIP for UK", Journal of Econometrics, 53, pp.211-244.

Juselius K. (1991):"Long-Run Relations in a Well Defined Statistical Model for the Data Generating Process: Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and UIP Relations between Denmark and Germany", in J. Gruber (ed.), Econometric Decision Models: New Methods of Modelling and Application, Springer Verlag.

Kravis I and R. Lipsey. (1983): "Toward an Explanation of National Price Levels"/Princeton Studies jn International Finance 52 (International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University, November.

Krugman P R and M. Obstfeld (2000): International Economics - Theory and Policy, Fifth Edition, Addison-Wesley Longman. Maddala G.S. and I.M. Kim (2000): Unit Roots Cointegration and Structural Change, Cambridge University Press.

Mussa M. (1986): "Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence and Implications", in K. Brunner and A H. Meltzer, Eds. Real Business Cycles, Real Exchange Rates and Actual Polices, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25, Amsterdam, North-Holland, pp.117-214.

National Institute of Statistics - Romania (2001a): Veniturile, cheltuielile şi consumul populaţiei in anul 2000 and Aspecte privind calitatea vieţii populaţiei în anul 2000.

National Institute of Statistics - Romania (2001b): Rezultate şi performanţe ale întreprinderilor din industrie, comerţ şi servicii.

Project LINK (2002): "World Economic Outlook: Aggregate Table", April, www.chass.utoronto.ca/link). Samuelson P.A. (1964): "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems", Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (May), pp. 145-154.

Samuelson P.A. (1994): "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later", Review of International Economics 2(3), October, pp.201-226.

Santarossa D.L. (2001): "Arrears as a Sign of Financial Repression in Transition Economies - The Case of Romania", Romanian Economic Research Observer No. 11- 12, Romanian Academy - National Institute of Economic Research. Schreyer P. and F. Koechlin (2002): "Purchasing Power Parities Benchmark Results", OECD Statistics Directorate 1, Error! Bookmark not defined._1999bench.pdf.

Zamfir E., Bădescu I., and Zamfir C., coord. (2000): Starea societăţii româneşti după 10 ani de tranziţie. Editura Expert, Bucharest.