Empirical analysis of the forecast error impact of classical and bayesian beta adjustment techniques

Sinha, Pankaj and Jayaraman, Prabha (2012): Empirical analysis of the forecast error impact of classical and bayesian beta adjustment techniques.

Abstract

The paper presents a comparative study of conventional beta adjustment techniques and suggests an improved Bayesian model for beta forecasting. The seminal papers of Blume (1971) and Levy (1971) suggested that for both single security and portfolio there was a tendency for relatively high and low beta coefficients to over predict and under predict, respectively, the corresponding betas for the subsequent time period. We utilize this proven fact to give a Bayesian adjustment technique under a bilinear loss function where the problem of overestimation and underestimation of future betas is rectified to an extent so as to give us improved beta forecasts. The accuracy and efficiency of our methodology with respect to existing procedures is shown by computing the mean square forecast error.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Bayesian Beta adjustment technique, bi-linear loss function, portfolio risk measure
• Subjects: G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; G - Financial Economics > G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance > G32 - Financing Policy ; Financial Risk and Risk Management ; Capital and Ownership Structure ; Value of Firms ; Goodwill; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General

References

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