Optimal fertility during World War I

Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2012): Optimal fertility during World War I.

Abstract

During World War I (1914--1918) the birth rates of countries such as France, Germany, the U.K., Belgium and Italy fell by almost 50%. In France, where the population was 40 millions in 1914, the deficit of births is estimated at 1.4 millions over 4 years while military losses are estimated at 1.4 millions too. Thus, the fertility decline doubled the demographic impact of the war. Why did fertility decline so much? The conventional wisdom is that fertility fell below its optimal level because of the absence of men gone to war. I challenge this view using the case of France. I construct a model of optimal fertility choice where a household in its childbearing years during the war faces three shocks: (i) an increased probability that its wife remains alone after the war; (ii) a partially-compensated loss of its husband's income; and (iii) a decline in labor productivity. I calibrate the model's parameters to the time series of fertility before the war and use military casualties and income data to calibrate the shocks representing the war. The model over-predicts the fertility decline by 10% even though it does not feature any physical separations of couples. It also over-predicts the increase in fertility after the war, and generates a temporary increase in the age at birth as observed in the French data.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Fertility ; war ; growth ; uncertainty
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models; N - Economic History > N4 - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation

References

Abramitzky, Ran, Adeline Delavande, and Luis Vasconcelos, \Marrying Up: The Role of Sex Ratio in Assortative Matching," American Economic Journal - Applied Economics, 2011, 3 (3), pp. 124-157.

Aguiar, Mark and Eric Hurst, \Measuring Trends in Leisure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2007, 122 (3), pp. 969-1006.

Albanesi, Stefania and Claudia Olivetti, \Maternal Health and the Baby Boom," NBER Working Papers, 2010, (16146).

Bar, Michael and Oksana Leukhina, \Demographic Transition and Industrial Revolution: A Macroeconomic Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, 2010, 12 (2), pp. 424-451.

Barro, Robert J and Garry S Becker, \A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1988, 103 (1), pp. 1-25.

Barro, Robert J and Garry S Becker, \Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, 1989, 57 (2), pp. 481-501.

-- and --  , “Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth,” Econometrica, 1989, 57 (2), pp. 481–501.

-- and Jose F. Ursua, “Consumption Disasters in the Twentieth Century,” The American Economic Review, 2008, 98 (2), pp. 58–63.

-- and Tao Jin, “On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters,” Econometrica, 2011, 79 (5), 1567–1589.

Blau, Francine D. and Lawrence M. Kahn, \The Gender Pay Gap: Going, Going... but Not Gone," in Francine D. Blau, Mary C. Brinton, and David B. Grusky, eds., The Declining Significance of Gender, New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 2006, chapter 2, pp. pp. 37-66.

Bunle, Henry, Le mouvement naturel de la population dans le monde de 1906 a 1936, Paris: Les editions de l'INED, 1954.

Caldwell, John C, \Social Upheaval and Fertility Decline," Journal of Family History, 2004, 29 (4), pp. 382-406.

Carre, Jean-Jacques, Paul Dubois, and Edmond Malinvaud, French Economic Growth, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1976.

Doepke, Matthias, Moshe Hazan, and Yishay Maoz, \The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," 2007. Manuscript.

Downs, Laura L, Manufacturing Inequality: Gender Division in the French and British Metalworking Industries, 1914-1939, Cornell University Press, 1995.

Festy, Patrick, \Eets et repercussion de la premiere guerre mondiale sur la fecondite francaise," Population, 1984, 39 (6), pp. 977-1010.

Galor, Oded and David Neil, \Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," The American Economic Review, 2000, 90 (4), pp. 806-828.

Greenwood, Jeremy, Ananth Seshadri, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke, \The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," The American Economic Review, 2005, 95 (1), pp. 183-207.

Henry, Louis, \Perturbations de la nuptialite resultant de la guerre 1914-1918," Population, 1966, 21 (2), pp. 273-332.

Huber, Michel, La population de la France pendant la guerre, Paris: Les Presses Universitaires de France, 1931.

Jones, Larry E, Alice Schoonbroodt, and Michele Tertilt, \Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility Income Relationship?," 2008. Manuscript.

Jones, Larry E, Alice Schoonbroodt, and Michele Tertilt, \Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models," 2011. Manuscript.

Knowles, John, \Why are Married Men Working So Much? Relative Wages, Labor Supply and the Decline of Marriage," 2010. Manuscript.

Manuelli, Rodolfo E. and Ananth Seshadri, \Explaining International Fertility Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2009, 124 (2), pp. 771-807.

Mitchell, Brian R., International Historical Statistics: The Americas, 1750-1993, New York, NY: Stockton Press, 1998.

Ohanian, Lee E and Ellen R McGrattan, \Does Neoclassical Theory Account for the Effects of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence from World War II," 2008. Manuscript.

Robert, Jean-Louis, \Women and Work in France During the First World War," in Richard Wall and Jay Winter, eds., The Upheaval of War: Family, Work and Welfare in Europe, 1914-1918, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005, chapter 9.

Schweitzer, Sylvie, Les Femmes ont toujours travaille. Une histoire du travail des femmes aux XIXe et XXe siecles, Paris: Odile Jacob, 2002.

Sommer, Kamila, \Essays in Quantitative Macroeconomics." PhD dissertation, Georgetown University 2009.

Vincent, Paul, \Consequences de six annees de guerre sur la population francaise," Population, 1946, 1 (3), pp. 429-440.