Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah

Lau, Evan and Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara (2012): Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah.

Abstract

This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: econometric, crime, Sabah, cointegration, VECM, VDC
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A13 - Relation of Economics to Social Values; K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics

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