Arora, Vipin (2013): Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_48621.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | energy consumption, forecast, projection, China, India |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q41 - Demand and Supply ; Prices Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting |
Item ID: | 48621 |
Depositing User: | Vipin Arora |
Date Deposited: | 27 Jul 2013 04:58 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 08:40 |
References: | Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. and Govinda R. Timilsina, "Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation," Policy Research Working Paper 4866, The World Bank 2009. Harvey, Andrew C., "Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models," in G. Elliott, C. Granger, and A. Timmermann, eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, 1st ed., Vol. 1, Elsevier, 2006, chapter 7. Kwiatkowski, Denis, Peter P.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt, and Yongcheol Shin, "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root," Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 54, 159-178. Wolfram, Catherine, Orie Shelef, and Paul Gertler, "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Working Paper 226, Energy Institute at Haas 2012. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/48621 |