Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity

Arora, Vipin and Lieskovsky, Jozef (2013): Natural Gas and U.S. Economic Activity.

Abstract

Previous empirical work has shown that real natural gas prices have a negligible impact on total U.S. industrial production and most of its sub-indices. We reassess these conclusions using a multivariate framework and a time-frame that includes recent developments in the U.S. natural gas market. Our results show that natural gas does affect U.S. economic activity, primarily through changes in its production. The shale gas revolution has changed this relationship - a one percentage point increase in natural gas supply raises total U.S. industrial production by more after 2008 than before.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Natural gas, VAR, shale, endogenous, industrial production
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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