González-Val, Rafael and Lanaspa, Luis (2013): Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000).
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Abstract
This paper reconsiders the path of the growth of American cities since 1790 (the first census published) in light of new theories of urban growth. Our null hypothesis for long-term growth is random growth, but the alternative is not only mean reversion as is usual. We obtain evidence supporting random growth against the alternative of mean reversion (convergence) in city sizes using panel unit root tests, but we also examine mobility within the size distribution of cities to try to extract growth patterns different from the general unit root trend detected. We find evidence of high mobility when we model growth as a first-order Markov process. Finally, by using a cluster procedure, we find strong evidence in favour of conditional convergence in city growth rates within convergence clubs, which we interpret as “local” mean-reverting behaviours. We interpret the high mobility and the results of the clustering analysis as signs of a sequential city growth pattern toward a random growth steady state.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000) |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | city size; urban growth; random growth; sequential city growth; transition matrices; club convergence |
Subjects: | O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis ; Housing ; Infrastructure C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes |
Item ID: | 50963 |
Depositing User: | Rafael González-Val |
Date Deposited: | 27 Oct 2013 13:15 |
Last Modified: | 19 Oct 2019 03:48 |
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URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/50963 |
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Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000). (deposited 20 May 2011 12:49)
- Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000). (deposited 27 Oct 2013 13:15) [Currently Displayed]
- Patterns in US urban growth (1790–2000). (deposited 01 Nov 2011 23:25)