The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

Evans, Olaniyi (2013): The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach.

Abstract

This study examines the monetary model of exchange rate in Nigeria, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach over the period 1998Q1 to 2012Q2. The estimation results show that there is long run relationship among variables of the monetary model of exchange rate for Nigeria. That is, the estimated coefficients of the money supply, income and interest rate differentials support the monetary exchange rate model. As well, the stability test of CUSUM shows that there exists a significant and stable monetary model of exchange rate determination for Nigeria. Therefore, this study recommends that market participants in the foreign exchange market may monitor and forecast future exchange rate movements using the money supplies, incomes and interest rates variables.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: monetary model, exchange rate, Autoregressive Distributed Lag, money supply, income and interest rate differentials
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets

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