Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (1986): A model for economic planning and analysis for the brazilian economy. Published in: University of Illinois
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_53944.pdf Download (15MB) | Preview |
Abstract
In this work a general purpose multisectoral economy-wide model, solved for growth rates, is constructed for the Brazilian economy.
In constructing the Brazilian model, the ORANI model for the Australian Economy was chosen as the starting point and was modified in a way that it can reflect and can be used to study the Brazilian reality.The main differences between both models are that in the Brazilian model:
a)A special treatment is giving to the government sector;
b)The demand for household consumption is broken down by different income groups, and an equation linking the workers income with their expenditure is introduced; allowing in this way for the study of income distribution problems;
c) An industry by industry framework is used, opposing to an industry by commodity framework used in the ORANI model;
d) Prices are assumed to be formed through a mark-up price theory, while the ORANI model assumes that prices are formed by maximizing profits.
The Brazilian model is constructed for: a) 21 industries; b) 3 types of primary factors (3 categories of labor, fixed capital, and agricultural land); c) one type of other costs; d) 2 sources of products (domestic and imported); e) 6 types of product use (inputs to current production, inputs to capital formation, commodity flows to household consumption, exports, government demands, and other demands); and f) 3 income groups. The model also presents a detailed specification for trade margins and taxes.
The basic input-output data used in the model refers to the 1975 input-output matrices for the Brazilian economy.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | A model for economic planning and analysis for the brazilian economy |
English Title: | A model for economic planning and analysis for the brazilian economy |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Economic planning, brazilian economy |
Subjects: | D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D57 - Input-Output Tables and Analysis |
Item ID: | 53944 |
Depositing User: | Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto |
Date Deposited: | 27 Feb 2014 14:55 |
Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2019 10:12 |
References: | Adelman, I., and S. Robinson (1978a). Income Distribution Policies in Developing Countries. Stanford: Stanford University Press. (1978b). "Income Distribution, Import Substitution, and Growth strategies in a Developing Country." In Day, R. H. and A. Cigno (1978) (eds.). Modelling Economic Change: The Recursive Programming Approach. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Bacha, E. L., and L. Taylor (1980). "Brazilian Income Distribution in the 1960s: "Facts," Model Results and the Controversy." In Taylor, L., et ale (1980). Models of Growth and Distribution for Brazil. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 296-342. Baer, W. (1983). The Brazilian Economy: Growth and Development. 2nd ed.. New York: Praeger. Baer, W., J. J. M. Guilhoto, and M. A. R. da Fonseca (1985). "Structural Changes in Brazil's Industrial Economy: 1960-1980." Department of Economics. University of Illinois at Urbana~Champaign. Mimeographed. Benevides, M. (1985). Income Distribution in Brazil: 1970-1980 Compared. Ph.D. Dissertation. Vanderbilt University. Bjerkholt, O. and S. Longva (1980). MODIS IV: A Model for Economic Analysis and National planning. samfunnsokonomiske Studier nr. 43. Oslo: Central Bureau of Statistics of Norway. Blitzer, C. B., P. B. Clark, and L. Taylor (1975) (eds. ) . Economy-Wide Models and Development Planning. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Bonelli, R., and P. V. da Cunha (1981). "Crescimento Economico, Padrao de Consumo e Distribuicao da Renda no Brasil: Uma Abordagem Multissetorial para o Periodo 1970/75." pesguisa e planejamento Economico, 11(3), pp. 703-56, Dec.. Braga, H. C. and E. P. Guimaraes (1982). "A Protecao Efetiva proporcionada a Industria Brasileira pelos Custos de Transporte e pelas Tarifas." Estudos Economicos, 12(3), pp. 113-23, Dec.. Braga, H. C. and R. A. Markwald (1983). "Funcoes de Oferta e de Demanda de Manufaturados no Brasil: Estimacao de um Modelo Simultaneo." Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico, 13(3), pp. 707-44, Dec.. Bruno, M. (1975). "Planning Models, Shadow Prices, and project Evaluation." In Blitzer, Clark and Taylor (1975) (eds.). Ope cit., pp. 197-212. Bulmer-Thomas, V. (1982). Input-output Analysis in Developing Countries: Source, Methods and Applications. New York: Wiley. Campos, R. O. (1969). "A Retrospect Over Brazilian Development Plans." In Ellis, H. S. (1969) (ed.). The Economy of Brazil. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, pp. 317-344. Clark, P. B. (1975). "Inter-Sectoral Consistency and Macroeconomic Planning." In Blitzer, C., P. B. Clark, and L. Taylor (1975) (eds.). Ope cit., pp. 129-154. Cooper, R. J., and K. R. McLaren (1980). "The ORANI -MACRO Interface." Impact Project preliminary Working Paper. No. IP-lO. (1981). "The ORANI-MACRO Interface: An Illustrative Exposition." Impact Project Preliminary Working Paper. No. IP-13. Also in The Economic Record. 59(165), pp. 166-179, June, 1983. Cronin, M. R. (1985). "The ORANI Model in Short Run Mode: Theory Versus Observation." Australian Economic Papers, 24, June, pp. 24-36. Dervis, K., J. de Melo, and S. Robinson (1982). General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy. Reprinted. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984. Dib, M. F. S. P. (1981). "Equações para a Demanda de Importações no Brasil." Revista Brasileira de Economia, 35(4), pp. 373-86, Oct.-Dec.. Dixon, P. B., and B. R. Parmenter (1980). "Regional Disaggregation of Results from ORANI 78: The Underlying Theory." Impact project Preliminary Working Paper. No. OP-28. Dixon, P. B., B. R. Parmenter, J. Sutton, and D. P. Vincent (DPSV) (1982). ORANI: A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Drud, A., W. Grais, and G. Pyatt (1983). "The Transaction Value Approach to the Formulation and Implementation of Economywide Equilibrium Models." World Bank Discussion Paper. Ellis, H. S. (1969) (ed.). The Economy of Brazil. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press. Fishlow, A. (1973). "Brazilian Income Size Distribution: Another Look." Berkeley: University of California, Department of Economics; processed. Published in Portuguese as: "Distribuicao da Renda no Brasil: Um Novo Exame." Dados, 11 (1973), pp. 10-80. Fonseca, M. A. R. da, and J. J. M. Guilhoto (1986). "Simulations of Government Policies in the Brazilian Economy: Intersectoral Flows and Income Distribution." Unpublished. Frisch, R. (1959). "A Complete Scheme for computing All Direct and Cross Demand Elasticities in a Model with Many Sectors." Econometrica, 27(2}, pp. 177-96, Apr.. Fundacao Getulio Vargas. Conjuntura Economica. Various Issues. Furtado, C. (1972). Formacao Economica do Brasil. 11th ed.. Sao Paulo: Companhia Editora Nacional. Geary, R. C. (1950-51). "A Note on 'A Constant utility Index of the Cost of Living'." Review of Economic Studies, 18, pp. 65-66. Hanoch, G. (1971). "CRESH Production Functions." Econometrica, 39, September, pp. 695-712. Ianni, O. (1971). Estado e Planejamento Economico no Brasil (1930-1970). Rio de Janeiro: Civilizacao Brasileira. IBGE (1979). Matriz de Relacoes Intersetoriais: Brasil -1970. 2nd. ed. (final version). Rio de Janeiro: Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. (1983). Censo Agropecuario de 1980. Rio de Janeiro: Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. (1984a). Censo Industrial de 1980. Rio de Janeiro: Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. (1984b). Matriz de Relacoes Intersetoriais: Brasil 1975. Unpublished: Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. Johansen, L. (1974). A Multi-sectoral Study of Economic Growth. Second Enlarged Edition, Amsterdam: North-Holland. Kelley, A. C., and J. G. Williamson (1984). What Drives Third World City Growth? A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach. Princeton: 261 Princeton University Press. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment. Interest and Money. New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1964. Klein, L. R. and H. Rubin (1948-49), "A Constant utility Index of the Cost of Living." Review of Economic studies, 15, pp. 84-87. Kmenta, J., and J. B. Ramsey (1981) (eds.). Large-Scale Macro-Econometric Models: Theory and Practice. Amsterdam: North-Holland. (1981). "Model Size, Quality of Forecast Accuracy, and Economic Theory." In Kmenta, J., and J. B. Ramsey (1981) (eds.). Ope cit.. Kornai, J. (1975). "Models and Policy: The Dialogue Between Model Builder and Planner." In Blitzer, C. R., P. B. Clark, and L. Taylor (1975) (eds.). Ope cit., pp. 13-32. Lafer, B. M. (1975) (ed.). Planejamento no Brasil. 3rd ed.. Sao Paulo: Perspectiva. Lafer, C. (1970). The Planning Process and the Political System in Brazil. A Study of Kubitschek's Target Plan 1956-1961. Ph.D. Dissertation. Cornell University. Langoni, C. G. (1973). Distribuicao da Renda e Desenvolvimento Economico do Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Expressao e Cultura. (1974). As Causas do Crescimento Economico do Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: APEC. Leontief, W. W. (1951). The Structure of the American Economy. Second Enlarged Edition. New York: Oxford University Press. Liew, L. H. (1982). "Regional Disaggregation of a National Economic Model: The 'Bottoms-up' Approach." Impact Project Preliminary Working Paper. No. OP-34. Lluch, C., A. A. Powel, and R. A. Williams (1977). Patterns in Household Demand and Saving. New York: Oxford University Press. Lysy, F. J.and L. Taylor (1980). "A General Equilibrium Income Distribution Model for Brazil."In Taylor, L., et al.(1980). Models of Growth and Distribution for Brazil. New York: Oxford University Press. Macedo, R. B. M. (1974). Models of the Demand for Labor and the Problem of Labor Absorption in the Brazilian Manufacturing Sector. Ph.D. Dissertation. Harvard University. (1975). "Uma critica das Estimativas da Elasticidade de Substituicao Obtidas para a Industria de Transformaçãoo." Estudos Economicos, 5(3), pp. 141-63, Sep.-Dec.. Malan, P., and J. Wells (1973). "Distribuicao da Renda e Desenvolvimento Economico do Brasil." Pesguisa e Planejamento Economico, 3(4), pp. 1103-24. Manne, A. S. (1974). "Multi-sector Models for Development Planning: A Survey." Journal of Development Economics, 1(1), pp. 43-69, June. Martone, C. L. (1975). "Analise do Plano de Acao Economica do Governo (PAEG) (1964-1966)." In Lafer, B. M. (1975) (ed.). cit., pp. 69-90. Miller, R. E., and P. D. Blair (1985). Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall. Miyazawa, K. (1976). Input-Output Analysis and the Structure of Income Distribution. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Monteiro, J. V. and L. R. A. Cunha (1974). "Alguns Aspectos da Evolucao do Planejamento Economico no Brasil (1934-1963)."Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico,4(1),pp.1-24,Feb.. Neves,R. B.(1978). "A utilizacao da Capacidade Produtiva na Industria Brasileira 1955/75." Pesguisa e Planejamento Economico,8(2),pp.299-330,Aug .. Oliveira,E.G.(1980)."Balanca Comercial de Produtos Industriais." Revista Brasileira de Economia, 34(4), pp. 557-85, Oct.-Dec.. Parmenter, B. R., K. R. Pearson and R. Jagielski (1985). "Bottoms-Up, Top-Down and Hybrid Methods for Regionalizing Computable General Equilibrium Models: Some Comparisons." Impact project preliminary Working Paper. No. OP-52. Pearson, K. R., and R. J. Rimmer (1983). "Sparce Matrix Methods for Computable General Equilibrium Models of the Johansen Class." Impact Project Preliminary Working Paper. No. OP-43. Powell, A. A. (1974). Empirical Analytics of Demand Systems. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D. C. Heath and Company. (1981). "The Major Streams of Economy-Wide Modeling: Is Rapprochement possible." In Kmenta, J. and J. B. Ramsey (1981) (eds.). Ope cit.• (1985). "Short-Run Applications of ORANI: An IMPACT Project Perspective." Australian Economic Papers, 24, June, pp. 37-53. Powell, A. A., R. J. Cooper, and K. R. McLaren (1983). "Macroeconomic Closure in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Experience from ORANI and Agenda for Further Research." Impact Project Preliminary Working Paper. No. IP-19. Prado, E. F. S. (1980). Elementos para uma Estrategia de Desenvolvimento Regional para 0 Brasil. Programa de Ensino e 264 Pesquisa em Economia Regional e Urbana. Sao Paulo: FIPE. Republica Federativa do Brasil (1971). I Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento: 1972 a 1974. Imprensa Nacional. (1974). projeto do II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento: PND (1975-1979). Rio de Janeiro: Servicos Graficos do IBGE. (1979). III Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento 1980/85: Projeto. Rio de Janeiro: Servicos Graficos do IBGE. (1985). I Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Nova Republica, Preliminary Version. SEPLAN. Rijckeghem, W. van (1969). "A Intersectoral consistency Model for Economic Planning in Brazil." in Ellis, H. S. (1969) (ed.). Ope cit., pp. 376-402. Rimmer, R. J. (1981). "Elimination of Linearization Errors Which Arise in the Solution of a General Equilibrium Model Using Johansen's . Approximation." Impact Project preliminary Working Paper. No. OP-33. Scarf, H. E. and J. B. Shoven (1984) (eds.). Applied General Equilibrium Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press. Shoven, J. B., and J. Whalley (1984). "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey." Journal of Economic Literature, vol. XXII, pp. 1007-1051, Sep.. Stone, R. (1954). "Linear Expenditure Systems and Demand Analysis: An Application to the Pattern of British Demand." The Economic Journal, LXIV, pp. 511-527. (1984). "Input-output Analysis and Economic Planning: A Survey." Revista de Econometria, IV(I), pp. 65-109, April. Suzigan, W., et ale (1985) . "Crescimento Industrial: Desempenho Recente, Perspectivas e Instrumentos de Po1itica." In IPEA/INPES (1985). Perspectivas de Longo Prazo da Economia Brasi1eira. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA/INPES. Taylor, L. (1975) . "Theoretical Foundations and Technical Implications." In Blitzer, Clark, and Taylor (1975) (eds.), cit., pp. 33-110.(1979). Macro Models for Developing countries. New York: McGraw-Hill. (1983). structuralist Macroeconomics: Applied Models for the Third World. New York: Basic Books. Taylor, L., and F. J. Lysy (1979). "Vanishing Income Redistributions: Keynesian Clues about Model Surprises in the Short Run." Journal of Development Economics, 6, March, pp. 11-29. Taylor, L., et. a1. (1980). Models of Growth and Distribution for Brazil. New York: Oxford University Press. Trebat, T. J. (1980). "Uma Ava1iacao do Desempenho Economico de Grandes Empresas Estatais no Brasil: 1965/75." Pesguisa e P1anejamento Economico, 10(3), pp. 813-50, Dec.. Tyler, W. G. (1980). "Protecao Tarifaria Efetiva Recente do Brasil." Estudos Economicos, 10(3), pp. 47-59, Sep.-Dec.. (1982). "Substituicao de Importacoes e Expansao das Exportacoes como Fontes de Crescimento Industrial no Brasil." Estudos Economicos, 12(3), pp. 125-34, Dec.. (1983). "Incentivos as Exportacoes e as Vendas no Mercado Interno: Analise da Po1itica Comercial e da Discriminacao contra as Exportacoes -1980-81." Pesguisa e Planejamento Economico, 13(2), pp. 543-74, Aug.. United Nations (1984). 1982 Yearbook of International Trade and statistics. New York: UN Publishing Division. Villela, A. V. (1972). "Resenha Bibliografica: Estado e Planejamento Economico no Brasil." Pesguisa e planejamento Economico, 2(1), pp. 171-78, June. Werneck, R. L. F.. (1982). "Desequilibrio Externo e Reorientacao do Crescimento e dos Investimentos: uma Analise Multissetorial das Perspectivas da Economia Brasileira." Relatório de pesquisa, Department of Economics, PUC-RJ. (1984). "Desequilibrio Externo e Reorientacao do Crescimento e dos Investimentos na Economia Brasileira." Pesguisa e Planejamento Economico, 14(2), pp. 311-352, August. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/53944 |