¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados

Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis (2014): ¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados.

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of currency crises? Evidence for selected countries
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Currency crises, foreign exchange, fiscal sustainability, probit model.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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