研发边际收益递减条件下的经济增长

Liu, Haiyang (2014): 研发边际收益递减条件下的经济增长.

Abstract

基于“新”新贸易理论、“新”新经济地理的研究，本文拟建立“新”新增长理论的分析框架。在总结大量经验事实的基础上，本文否定了当前新增长理论中“知识生产边际收益递增或不变”这一不合理的假定，我们认为在企业异质并独立研发的条件下，产业内的知识生产即使存在边际收益递减，经济仍然可以持续增长。这一模型可以解释六个方面的问题：（1)产业为何有兴衰；（2）经济为何有周期；（3）经济收敛为何不稳定、世界大同为什么有可能难以实现；（4）知识和教育为什么可能对经济增长的作用很小；（5）市场经济、威权政治、利益集团对经济增长的作用有何不同；（6）中国过去为何衰落、现在为何复兴、将来如何发展。

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Economic Growth with the marginal decreasing returns of R&D
• Language: Chinese
• Keywords: 增长理论，研发，边际收益递减，异质性
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General

References

[1] Harrod, Roy F. (1939).“An Essay in Dynamic Theory.”Economic Journal,49, June, 14–33.

[2] Domar, Evsey D. (1946).“Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment.”Econometrica,14, April, 137–147.

[3] Solow, Robert M. (1956).“A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.”Quarterly Journal of Economics,70, February, 65–94.

[4] Ramsey, Frank (1928).“A Mathematical Theory of Saving.”Economic Journal,38, December, 543–559.

[5] Cass, David (1965).“Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation.”Review of Economic Studies,32, July, 233–240.

[6] Koopmans, Tjalling C. (1965).“On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth.” In The Econometric Approach to Development Planning. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1965.

[7] Diamond, Peter (1965).“National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model.”American Economic Review,55, December, 1126–1150.

[8] Romer, Paul M. (1986).“Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.”Journal of Political Economy,94, October, 1002–1037.

[9] Romer, Paul M. (1990).“Endogenous Technological Change.”Journal of Political Economy,98, October, part II, S71–S102.

[10] Grossman, G., and E. Helpman, (1991). "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," Review of Economic Studies, 43-61.

[11] Aghion, Philippe, and Peter Howitt, "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, (1992), 323-351.

[12] Jones, C. I. (1995). “Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 495–525.

[13] Kortum, Samuel, Research, Patenting, and Technological Change, Econometrica, 1997, 65 (6): 1389-1419.

[14] Segerstrom, Paul， Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects, American Economic Review, 1998, 88(5): 1290-1310.

[15] Young, Alwyn, Growth without Scale Effects, Journal of Political Economy, 1998, 106(1): 41-63.

[16] Peretto, Pietro, Technological Change and Population Growth, Journal of Economic Growth, 1998, 3(4): 283-311.

[17] Dinopoulos, Elias and Peter Thompson, Schumpeterian Growth without Scale Effects, Journal of Economic Growth, December, 1998, 3 (4): 313-335.

[18] Acemoglu, D., Simon Johnson and James Robinson, The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation, American Economic Review, December, 2001, volume 91, pp. 1369-1401.

[19] Acemoglu, D., Directed Technical Change, Review of Economic Studies, 2002, 69 (4): 781-810

[20] Acemoglu, D., Labor and Capital Augmenting Technical Change, Journal of European Economic Association, 2003, 1: 112-140.

[21]Melitz, Marc J. The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 2003, 71(6).

[22]Melitz, Marc J. and G. Ottaviano. Market size, trade, and productivity. Review of Economic Studies, 2008, 75(1).